Cold NW Flow Returns To UK This Weekend, Bitter Cold On The Way For Mid-February? (Includes HD Video!)

Written by Mark Vogan on January 28, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 1 Comment

Before the cold spell ended last Friday I alluded to the idea that cold weather wouldn’t be long coming back. I’ve been keeping an eye on all the various models and I like what I am seeing even for next week.

In the post earlier this afternoon I showed you the high which builds into the UK and Ireland this weekend and also how a storm tries to push north into the UK but appears to get deflected back south. What does this suggest? The upper flow is NORTHERLY and that high pressure is coming down within a trough, not an upper ridge. With the core of the UPPER ridge positioned to the west of the UK and a storm spinning within the base of the trough, positioned southeast of England, this suggests a nice cold northerly flow.

The later stage of this week sees a high trying to push north towards the UK but a trough diving down over Scandinavia and towards Iberia, deflects the northward advancing Azores ridge west of the UK. A high within a trough means a chilly weekend with sunny skies and a cold, frosty night widely.

This of course does not consitute a -NAO but it’s worth paying attention to the way the atmosphere is flowing given these circumstances.

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Here’s Saturday according to the ECMWF.

Source: ECMWF

I always believed that once the winter pattern truely kicked in with all the adjustments the atmosphere has to make, cold would likely outdo mild, especially from mid winter onwards. Unless there’s a big change in the models over the next few days, cold air wins out again this weekend and through next week and thus the mild pattern, if you can call it that.. only lasts a mere 5 or 6 days.

What I am curious about is, how a trough returns and deepens over Scandinavia with real cold returning. If the mean high stays and holds to our west over the next 10 days then we could well see a return to the pattern we just had around Feb 10, afterall the ensembles do show the return of a -NAO with blocking returning to the pole and Greenland. Next week looks modestly cold once again but this may only be the start of a process with real cold not fully returning until after Feb 7. Mid Feb could see yet another spell of nasty winter weather across a large area of Europe including the UK. More snow and this time around, a high which builds over top of that snow cover which produces the coldest part of winter.

As for next week according to the ECMWF, here’s Sunday. Note NW flow, fairly chilly 850 temps, core of the ridge well to the SW.

Source: ECMWF

By Monday, that high pressure core shifts further west as a trough deepens, pulling bitter air down over Scandinavia, this trough extends all the way to the Med. How cold it gets over the UK depends upon how far west the upper ridge gets.

Source: ECMWF

Monday looks to show the western extend of thr trough over the UK with the strongest heights to the west. Tightly packing isobars indicate a strong northerly flow for the UK, which may hold daytime highs in the 0-4C range. The heart of Europe once again gets very cold with an open door from northern Scandinavia to northern Italy.

Tuesday

Source: ECMWF

By Tuesday a reinforcing trough appears to drop due south over the UK.

Wednesday

Source: ECMWF

By Wednesday, the upper low is spinning to the east with cold NW winds blowing across the UK on the backside.

Thursday

Source: ECMWF

Thursday shows a similar setup but as this is happening, take note of the ridge. Yes, it gets forced back to the southwest but as colder and colder air gets fed into the heart of the continent, that ridge is all the while building north over the Atlantoc towards Greenland, following the path of least resistance. What’s that telling us?

Both AO & NAO Head Into Tank Mid-February.