A major pattern shift will take place this weekend as ridging will replace the exceptionally deep trough which has brought the coldest air to Los Angeles and much of the Southwest in many years.

The pattern evolving will bring winter back into the Midwest and East in a big way with waves of arctic air driving south.

I made mention in the previous post about the snow coming to the Northeast in the coming days and while it’s nothing spectacular, it will whiten enough of the region to help moderate less, the coming arctic slammer.

How cold will depend upon a couple of things. How much snow we put down and where the core dives into but Chicago, Indianapolis, Detroit, Cleveland and Pittsburgh should all see one or two nights below zero and days which may fail to hit 10.

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Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York and Boston should all dip to 10, perhaps slightly lower with Boston perhaps dropping below zero.

Here’s the ECMWF for early next week.

144 hrs (Mon)

168 hrs (Tues)

192 hrs (Wed)

The arctic cold shot coming next week which could hold Minneapolis below zero for a couple of days and the Big Cities of the I-95 in the teens/low 20s, won’t be the last. This pattern suggests further shots of arctic air into the Central and Eastern US over the next 2-3 weeks with following shots perhaps colder than the previous.

Along with this cold comes a high lake-effect snow potential. Given the lack of ice on the Great Lakes and the level of cold coming down on the NW flow, major multi-day snows are likely.

Like in Europe, the CFSv2 shows some impressive cold from next week through early February. Any pullback of the cold is short lived with any cold air return always on the horizon.

Moral is, while next week is cold, what follows may be even colder. This sets up a wild 2nd half to winter. A winter many thought would be a repeat of 2011-12.

Days 5-10

Days 7.5-12.5

Days 17.5-22.5

Days 20-25

 

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