Sorry for the lack of posts during the day Wednesday, I was on the road much of the day and trying to get organised for my 2 week vacation which starts on Friday. I will be out in New Jersey for 2 weeks and I must say that I am very much looking forward to a break but, I am also looking forward to continuing to keep you posted on what’s going on with this pattern in the coming few weeks as there’s a heck of a pattern shaping up. Despite the coming of warmth over the Eastern US and the UK, that stratospheric warming that’s taking place up over the pole cannot be ignored.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Again I want to show you what I am meaning by this. Take a look at the initial and then look out at 240 hours and see how the entire polar stratosphere dramatically warms. the polar vortex completely disappears which basically means the arctic is likely to be drained of arctic air later down the road. What this means folks is that while the NAO is positive and the AO is going to go positive, it cannot last and there is evidence in the models which show a colder pattern shaping up, firstly Out West and out over the Plains and by Jan 15th on towards late month, the potential for severe cold across many parts of the mid latitudes, including the Eastern US is incredible. These warming events are the kind of ones that bring some of the great arctic outbreaks. Here’s the initial 10mb stratospheric temps. Notice all the cold extending from the pole to UK, but what’s happening here is that the cold within the stratosphere is getting pushed south. By 240 hours, all that cold is gone from the pole at stratosphere level. But where? It’s went south and down to the surface. This has the potential for some very wild weather and severe cold.

If you live in the East, yes much of the next 7-10 days will be mild but I want you to watch how the cold intensifies up over western Canada and feeds the arctic air into the Great Bain, Rockies and Plains through next week at the same time it’s mild in the East. Many are likely to panic, think winter’s over but it’s the stratospheric warming and complete full-scale turning that has me worried about the high potential for SEVERE cold which for some, will come from nowhere. As this happens next week and the trough east of Hawaii works east, it pushes the ridge up top east, as this happens, all that cold that’s recharging over the snowfields of western Canada, will get forced southeast into the heart of the nation.

Next 8 days

Day 8-16

Notice just how cold the air becomes days 8 through 16 over southern Canada and this is feeding into the Rockies and Plains. It’s as the trough east of Hawaii and ridge over top digs and pushes east and as the initial effects of the stratospheric warming is kicking in.

While it may appear the eastern ridge is too strong and the trough which continues to fill with colder and colder air stays over the Rockies and West, eventually that cold pool, which break and push out the eastern ridge. That ridge will get transferred up towards Greenland with the block re-establishing over top as a reaction to the stratospheric warming.

So, all in all, the East is warming after a few very cold night up over New England and next week is likely to see some days 10-20 above normal but as the ridge is over the East, so the cold and trough deepens Out West, this will build over the next 10 days before eventually all that cold bursts east, breaks the ridge and as pressures builds over top, they join ridges from Alaska to Greenland, trapping all the arctic air to the south. I expect a fairly mild period for the most part during my time in the US but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some fun and games during the final 5 days of my trip with a fight between warm and cold setting up in the East with perhaps 1-2 large snow events which get followed some the coldest weather of the winter.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_is(s2member_level0)]

Join a subscription plan, [s2Get constant=”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME” /]!

[warning]You do not have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. You will need to join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/warning][/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]

Sign in to read the full forecast…

Not yet a member? Start your 7 day free trial

Create your free markvoganweather.com account today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis for 7 days. [/s2If]