If I had much in the way of hair, I would be pulling it out right now as I glance at some of these models.
While the NAO is seen to go positive again, the GFS and even the ECMWF has a much milder look than what I would like for the UK and a large part of Europe over the next 10-20 days but, there I do have optimisim in this sea of warmth which I will explain below.
Here is the GFS for the next 16 days. Ahhh
Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models
I must say, the 0-8 day chart I think is too warm off the GFS and the chart above may in fact be too warm..
Yes it will turn colder next week, especially around Christmas Day onwards but beyond that there is no real indication of any cold of significance. I don’t like what I am seeing with the ECMWF Control, heck it’s warmer than the Deterministic is.
As I’ve been writing this, the new ECMWF has come in. Check out these heights (below) for Christmas Day, a flat, zonal flow yes, but we are on the cold side of the jet and with moisture falling through streaming through 522 thickness over Scotland and 528 along the South Coast of England, surprise snow is possible.
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Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models
Below is the pressure and wind speed chart for the same period as the above 500mb heights. Firstly, notice the greens streaming south of the UK, these indicate the strongest winds aloft (jet stream level), note low pressure down at around 983 mb across Scotland. This could support ‘surprise’ snow I think.
The key aspect to the Christmas Day period is that the Iberian high is displaced to the east. This does two things, 1) allows height falls and trough over the UK which brings in colder air, 2) breaks the eastern Europe cold.
Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models
With a much colder and very different pattern now developing over the US with likely the coldest air compared to normal, globally, setting up to start January across the USA, this may alter the equation in all models beyond new year which may favour us when it comes to colder. How? Remember, by laying down a blanket of white, the arctic air is encouraged to move across it. As Asia warms and with the pattern now shifting from a warm, early and mid-December period for the US, the very coldest air looks to be heading for the Lower 48 by new year and as much as 60% of the US may be snowcovered by then. My point in saying this to you is that IF snow becomes dominant right to the East Coast and this drives a deeper and deeper trough and cold pool further east, this may encourage a more negative NAO with height rises over Greenland and the North Atlantic, which in turn could present a trough and colder weather to the UK. The US will turn colder by new year and this side-theory I have won’t be tested until then.
In the meantime, a westerly flow presents an up and down temperature regime for the UK with mild surges followed by backlash cold but this would coincide with a +NAO. As I have stated before, I will show you what I am seeing and not simply what you want to see and most of us do want to see those charts show cold with snow in abundance but in the short term, I don’t see it certainly in the models. As it stands right now, there is very little sign of winter through Jan 10 if those models are anything to go by.
The positive thing in all this folks is we are not even at Christmas yet and there is a hack of a lot of winter left. I’ve said it before and I will say it again, this is not last year and while the cold did come for a short period late January/early February to England, it never showed for Scotland, Wales, Ireland and Northern Ireland. This year, I believe our time will come.
Check out the latest NAO ensemble out. Notice it goes positive but then negative at the turn of the new year around the time time I alluded above with the building snow and cold to follow in the Eastern US. If this comes to fruition like I think it is very likely to, then this is a good sign, however the crucial thing for us is, whatever block redevelops, it’s where it sets up that is very important for us.
I may sound somewhat negative or flat in this post, I guess being on the road for 12-14 hours each day over the past 5 days deson’t help and yes, it can get frustrating, I know tomorrow is a new day and there will be colder times ahead for us.
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We’d need to know what a winter wash out was before attempting to answer such an ambiguous question. From the Fife Weather team, Timmy Jimmy.
I’d expect the rest of the winter to be up and down. Bits of cold and clear weather with the frost in the morning then the wet and windy westerly weather. Probably the wet and windy stuff to win mostly given we live on an island dominated by this kind of weather. Do I expect significant snow to cover the whole of the uk for a period of a week or two? NO! This would be a freak event if it did happen. Weather is about probability. We may get the odd snowy week in parts of the UK though (outwith the Highlands of SCot). Lucky people eh!
But don’t worry, it will still snow in Russia, Canada, and of course on Cairngorm. Why not visit the Alps for some nice skiing? I may go to my local indoor ski centre for some controlled snow conditions.
Tim
Hi sorry to ask but do you think this winter will be a wash out with the prdictions of a cold snowy predictions down the pan.
I find your blog interesting. I do however feel you’re too caught up in how cold and snowy it is going to be in the UK. A lot of people love snow here in the UK. It’s unusual weather that can bring a beautiful landscape and fun games. It may even bag you a day off work now and then. But on continents such as North America and Asia, for large parts, the snow probably bores them to tears as does the rain to us here in UK.
I do feel it’s been colder than usual until in the Autumn and start of winter. However, nothing special. Just frosts, ice, and slush sometimes. But the prediction of the freak cold after mid December looks to be wrong. I wouldn’t expect a person to be able to forecast the day to day weather let alone the overall weather pattern for a season. The MO can’t do it, so why would a person?