As expected, we’re beginning to hear more and more about the snow and cold affecting Europe. For weeks now I have been saying how Europe will turn much colder as the snowpack grows and this was long before models showed this. Without sounding arrogant, this appears to be a good call and this forecast is separated from most because most go purely by models. While the Siberian express isn’t actually here yet, it’s the fact models and the evolution of a pattern both regionally and globally is going right to my idea is very interesting and important. The work I’ve put om over the past few months in joining up the variables and reading what’s going on, putting this against history to come up with a potential conclusion appears to have merit. However there are things that can still go wrong, so I can’t rest easy. The signs are there though.

This colder pattern is occurring when many or most ‘forecasters’ didn’t see it, just like they didn’t see the turn coming in the NAO/AO to positive back in November. I make no apologies for repeating myself a lot these days as I must continue to highlight the ‘why’ of all this and how I saw this coming without model support. It’s all about understanding what is going on and what can result when certain elements come together,

You aren’t paying for a basic forecast but daily in-depth analysis which looks at the weather beyond a computer model. I seek and strive to give you more and a window into a world of meteorology that you won’t experience elsewhere. Our weather is driven by GLOBAL, not local patterns and drivers and so it’s trying to help you look outside the box, sharing with you the ‘behind the scenes’ of a short, medium and long range forecast.

The seeds to what is going down over the next 20 days has been sown since summer and I have worked tirelessly to get this right, especially after last winter’s disappointment. I have learned a lot from last winter and the mistakes made last winter has helped me produce this year’s forecast.

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Of course the cold isn’t here yet and yes, it could still go wrong but what you can’t deny is the fact that the pattern I have been saying would happen, is showing up now. This folks will be a nasty commencement to a long and tough winter, the coming cold period is not the worst this winter has to offer I don’t think and I strongly believe that this may well be a mere sign of things to come after New Year.

A few have made mention as I I write this post, about how it’s looking mild at the end of this week. Just like it was meant to be mild this week right?

Firstly, lets break down the setup which has lead us to now..

1) The NAO/AO has been negative for the most part since spring, providing a bias for negative in winter and helped significantly by a North Atlantic tripole of warm-cold-warm which favours blocking.

2) A weak El Nino or La Nada can favour colder winters for the UK/Europe

3) Russia turned white very quick and early allowing a an unusually cold, early cold pool.

4) Building cold over the Russian snowpack is bleeding westward and as it does so Europe’s snowpack grows

5) As snowpacks expand, so does the cold and there is less modification of these Siberian origin air masses when there is a healthy snowpack which can deflect solar energy back to space.

Here’s the current snowpack across Europe.

This snowcover will allow cold air to build overhead as well as lay down the tracks of Siberian air to travel across without warming up all that much.

What’s interesting and not unlike December 2010 is the upper pattern developing in such a way that once the snow gets laid down and Siberian air travels across, the blocking not only retrogrades to the perfect position west, northwest towards Greenland, but even more perfect and a likely indication the cold will be here to stay for quite sometime, is, the ridge builds east over top of Scandinavia with negative heights underneath, which become trapped. The flow around the blocking high over Scandinavia extending  east, means an easterly flow and the transport Siberian air west will naturally cross the snowcover of Europe and push into the UK.

It’s important to note the physics of cold air too and when strong and deep enough within the atmosphere, this will push the warm pool to the west.

If the block didn’t materialize over Scandinavia, we wouldn’t see the transport of Russian air all the way west to the UK.

Here’s the projected snowcover for Europe off the ECMWF for Monday. Note the lack of snow over the UK.

Here’s by Thursday (162 hrs) Note the snow in the UK is mainly confined to eastern areas due to a dry, very cold flow blowing from the east, but travelling across a a relatively warm North Sea, the air can pick up moisture and bring it ashore as snow in eastern parts of the UK. These east wind are the coldest winds we get here.

Also note the extent of snowcover across the continent. For minimal modification of a frigid Siberian air mass, snowcover must be present and there is practically a nonstop runway of snowcover for this air mass to run across, so it is likely to grow very cold indeed throughout Europe and indeed the UK as well as NI and Ireland.

While snows may be slow through next week for many parts of the UK due to that east flow, with time, snows may cover more and more of the UK and Ireland,

Here’s what the ECM has by 240 hrs. Valid for Mon Dec 17.

What makes me more comfortable with the idea this will all play out, check out the NAO/AO index!

NAO

AO

Here’s the GFS temperature anomalies for the next 16 days off Weatherbell. Folks I think we can agree that this would make for a brutal next 16 days throughout Europe given that we have 8 to 13C below normal over a 16 day period!

I would also like to point out that this map keeps getting colder run by run. I actually hope, for the people of Europe that this is wrong!

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