While we have entered my much anticipated warm and wet spell in November with a long fetched moisture plume extending from the UK back out into the subtropical Atlantic, this is not all that dissimilar to what was experienced in November 2009 when Cumbria experienced devastating flooding. This very event was something I believed could setup this year given the pattern, SST’s and also the expected flip into positive territory with the NAO/AO.

While it’s that time of year we many of us are paying close attention to what the ensembles are showing, their indeed still in good agreement with the flip back to negative late month. So, while we’re warm, wet and somewhat gloomy, our patience may very well pay off soon.

I still believe the cold is coming and may hit harder than many think.

I am hesitant in calling for cold too soon and recon it will come around the time when November makes way for December. But, like we saw in 2009, look out, it may hit very near without warning and this setup may have a locked in pattern for a couple of weeks.

Exciting times to come for sure!