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General Synopsis

The general synoptic chart consists of a low pressure system moving slowly northeast across the UK over the next 24 to 36 hours and deepening from 1000mb to nearer 994 mb by Friday morning. An active frontal boundary producing the rains will be slow moving, presenting a flood risk for mainy but as the low reaches the North Sea Coast by dawn Friday, this boundary stalls for around 24 to 36 hours and will enhance the rainfall totals from the Scottish Borders northwestward through Grampian up to the North Highlands. The low will linger in a similar position through Saturday through Sunday and into Monday, taking on a loop over the North Sea/Northeast Scotland over the course of the 72 to 90 hour period before a gradual push towards the southeast later Monday.

Scotland

Throughout the course of today we’ve seen a band of rain push ever so slowly across the country in association of a frontal boundary. These rains have become increasingly persistant and within this, pulses of heavier rain has been pushing through on their eastward journey. If you we’re driving from perhaps the west coast in towards central areas like I was, you may have noticed heavy rain in the west arriving this morning while as you travelled east it turned less wet. This indicated the slow eastward progression of this rain but sure enough it has spread rains across the country through the early afternoon. The rain intensity has increased over central areas and so as these rains continue throughout the country well into this evening, this raises the concern of flooding.

Through tonight, western areas should start to see clearing as this band begins to push towards the North Sea coast but Glasgow may see it take some time before the rains stop, possibly nearer midnight. Current radar suggests heavier pulses pushing across the North Channel and will likely crosses Glasgow later this evening, bringing heavier rains. Take care whilst out on the roads as surface flooding and spray will be a significant hazard.

By Friday morning, western and central areas should be cloudy but drying out as the main front will be located in a southeast to northwest angle stretching from the Pentland Hills to the North Highlands. Expect heavy rains and the boundary to become stationary from the Borders up through Fife, Tayside, Aberdeenshire up to the far North where it will rain persistently for the next 24 to 36 hours. It should be a generally dry day though skies should remain fairly cloudy with possible afternoon clearing across the western central belt, always a risk of rain nearer to Edinburgh.

Lows range from 5-8C tonight, 9-13C tomorrow.

Due to the stalled nature of this boundary, the rains may continue through a good part of Saturday too but shouldn’t be quite as heavy. All in all, a 1-3 inches of rain is expected from the Borders to North Highlands over the next 36 to 48 hours with some spots along the upslopes of the south facing Grampians where as much as 4 inches of rain is possible.

England

Through this morning, the Southwest endured the heaviest of the rain but tonight, they should quickly begin the drying out process while the heart of central and eastern England bare the brunt of the heavy and persistent rain with ‘bands of torrential downpours. Through this afternoon and into the early evening hours, the radar is lighting up with intense north-south oriented bands of slow moving, heavy rains stretching from Warwickshire all the way up to Cumbria. These intense pulses will slowly continue pushing east throughout the night and should be on the east coast by tomorrow morning while a cloudy, misty, murky legacy should be left behind in western and central areas of the country.

Throughout tomorrow, it should be one of an improving picture with skies brightening across south-central and southeast England, extending north up through the Midlands and into Northwest England. The rains are likely to linger to the east of the Pennines but these should ease and clear out into the North Sea through tomorrow afternoon.

Down across southwest England, another, weaker front will work in aboard the northwest flow and so showers will pep up on a stiffening northwest wind during Friday.

Lows hold at 7-11C through tonight but turning cooler during the early morning as some clearing in the cloud deck may occur in western parts. Highs tomorrow range from 9-10 in the rain to 11-14C elsewhere.

Wales

It’s been a right dismal, dreary old October day throughout Wales with widespread heavy rain but there is light at the end of a rather wet tunnel. Around now, we are starting to see the back edge of the rain band and this will ever so slowly push northeast, leading to a drier overnight period. Winds will become noticeably stronger out of the northwest along the coast with gusts touching gale-force during the night. By dawn Friday, expect little rain as it should have fully cleared out and this should allow for a better Friday with sunshine. There will always be a risk of a heavy shower rattling in on a brisk west wind which will always be strongest along the Pembrokeshire coast. With these cells, there may be hail and thunder mixed in.

Temps tonight cool as skies begin clearing out, dropping widely to between 5-7C by dawn, highs tomorrow range from 10-12C, feeling cooler, especially in the wind.

Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland has probably seen the worst of today’s rains as they have been widely heavy, persistent and have widely been torrential. A solid 1-2 inches has fallen across many parts and so flooding has become an issue as this afternoon has worn on. Thankfully, through this evening, the heavy rains will have spread out into the North Channel, leaving behind a fresh west wind and showers.

Tonight will be fairly cloudy, breezy with temps 5-8C.

Tomorrow will be a much brighter day with a cool west wind which will transport heavy showers across the country. These may bring hail and thunder along with gusty winds but all in all a much better day compared to today.

Ireland

The worst of the rains affected Ireland during last night and through this morning, lingering into this afternoon across eastern areas while skies have cleared, making way for good amounts of sun along the Atlantic coast. These sunny skies spread east through this afternoon but you’ll have noticed those winds freshening out of the northwest.

Tonight, winds fall light and so under some clearer skies, expect temperatures to fall into low single figures, presenting rural areas with a touch of frost. Lows tonight range from 2-6C.

Tomorrow looks largely fine with a mix of sun and showers aboard a brisk northwesterly. Always feeling cool in the wind with highs range from 11-13C.