The system which has been well advertised on here for the past 5 days is now impacting southern Britain. Rains are coming down hard across large swathes of South and Mid Wales and across all of southern England and it will continue throughout the while this canopy of heavy, persistent and at times torrential rain will continue advancing north up through the Midlands and eventually into the North of England by tonight.

Check out this view I captured a little earlier. Yes, the mess in the South won’t reach here till later tonight into tomorrow, so with high pressure in the North, it’s a rather pleasant autumn day here and this extends down into the North of England until the change comes this afternoon when skies turn cloudier and winds freshen. It’s a not a bad day across the channel in Northern Ireland and much of Ireland either. Make the most of it!

The current radar image below off WeatherOnline shows the heavy rains now spreading their way across Southwest England, South Wales and all of the South even across to London. Notice the patch of more intense rains coming off France and heading out over the Channel, this will push into Southern counties over the next few hours. Expect multiple waves of this heavier pulses throughout today. All this mess will continue northbound over the next 48 hours as the centre of circulation pushes north. The deepening process of the low will continue for the next 2-3 days with the centre expected to get all the way to the Scottish border by Tuesday.

Expect rains to persist in the South while it turns increasingly wet and windy further north.

As of this writing, there are intense cells with embedded thunderstorms within the main precip canopy streaming off France. We could see some exceptional downpours with thunder and lightning later this afternoon across parts of Southern England. Be aware of this threat if your driving. This setup is ripe for flash flooding!

Here’s a map from Netweather.tv showing recent lightning strikes along the North coast of France and over the channel. This is heading north towards the South Coast.

Cold & Frosty Nights Are Back!

Like yesterday morning, it was another cold start with frost forming beneath clear skies. The lowest reading yesterday morning dipped to -3.1C at Tulloch Bridge but even within the Southern Uplands, my truck dashboard read -2C near Abington. Here at the house it hit -1.7C. This morning it fell to 0.2C. Yesterday morning was the first morning with a ‘widespread frost’ which extended from the far north of Scotland all the way to the Midlands. A large area of Ireland including Northern Ireland also saw frost. These cold nights have been caused by a cold pool of air over us along with surface high pressure which is a great combo for significant overnight radiational cooling. The sunshine should last throughout today across Scotland but will turn filtered late in the day as the sun begins setting. At this point, heavy rains will be pushing up into Lancashire and Cumbria where a rough spell between tonight through Tuesday morning will be had. This region of the country (North of England) could see the greatest amounts of rain with 2-4 inches over the Fells.

Back to the wind and rain..

During the overnight hours of Sunday into Monday, that heavy rain will reach southern Scotland and eventually into the Lowlands. 1-2 inches can be expected over the Central Belt between midnight tonight and midday Tuesday with upslope areas of the Pentlands and S. Uplands recieving 1-3 inches, perhaps locally higher. Localised flooding is likely.

Gusts of 60-70 mph Could Be Experienced Across Parts of Northern England and Scotland

Winds will become a significant feature later this afternoon in the South and during Monday, a howlling SE,E gale will impact the Midlands north to Northumberland. Exposed, higher parts of Yorkshire, Derbyshire, Durham and Northumberland could see strong gales and perhaps even severe gales LATER MONDAY, MONDAY NIGHT with gusts reaching 60-70 mph (Tops of the North Pennines could see gusts to 80 mph).

Later Monday into Tuesday the strongest easterly winds will crank over much of Scotland with potential for gales in most parts including the Central Lowlands but eastern areas could see severe gales with gusts from the Berwickshire coast all the way to eventually Caithness reaching 65-75 mph. (Mountain tops could see 90-110 mph gusts).

Here’s the latest GFS charts showing the track and deepening of the low as it migrates north, then takes a turn across the channel to NI over the next 72 hours. Notice the central pressure falls to 978, isobars tighen quite a bit over Scotland from the Central Belt north. Damaging winds may occur between Monday night and Tuesday night!