For over a week now, the UK has had the return of the Azores High in it’s sights and yes, it’s coming for real this weekend, finally!

Showers, while heavy and fairly widespread over England and Wales tonight and during Friday, should ease with much more sunshine and with a southwest flow, temperatures should rise everywhere Saturday.

Sunday looks to be warmest for Central Scotland with 21-24C

While up here in Scotland, we should enjoy our best and warmest day either Saturday or, more likely Sunday (in central and southern areas), the warmest temperatures look to be Monday or most likely Tuesday across England and Wales as a cold front associated with a powerful Icelandic low spreads heavy rain and strong winds down over northern Scotland Sunday afternoon, this pushes the ridge and strongest southwest, heat transporting winds, to the south. There is a big question mark over how far south this front gets during Sunday. If it manages to work it’s cloud and rain further south than expected then even the Glasgow to Edinburgh corridor may see a cool, possibly rainy Sunday, it boils down to who’s strongest, the low or ridge to see who winds Scottish airspace Sunday. If it remains far enough north, then sun and a stiff upper level southwest wind will usher in afternoon highs of 21-24C, locally 25C across the Central Belt and Southern Uplands.

Concerns over flooding rains, gales across northern Scotland

I am becoming increasingly concerned over just how much rain may fall between early Sunday through late Monday over the northwest and central Highlands. We could see gales along northwest and northern coasts, the western and northern isles as the ecmwf continues to show an intense sub 972mb low skirting southern Iceland and it’s very active cold front containing very heavy rains, swiping Scotland. The contrast between deep low and strong ridge, means big rains are to be had over a region greatly influenced by the orographic effect.

During Monday, the heavy and slow moving band of rain not only push down over central Scotland but will usher down cooler air. From Greater Manchester to London, temperatures will rise to between 23-26C as southwest winds increase, drawing more heat out of the Azores as the front sags further south.

Tuesday looks to be warmest for Southern England with potential for 28-30C

According to tonight’s model run, it looks likely Monday will be warmer than Sunday and Tuesday will be warmer than Monday over the Midlands down into the south. Manchester and Birmingham could rise into the 24-26C range while London may get to between 28 to 30C.

High looks to breakdown but could it rebuild to the west of UK by late next week?

It’s looking most likely right now that heights will become surpressed all the way down to the South of England by Wednesday as the cold front sinks further and further south, however, the questions is, does it get all the way down to southern England before the low gets too far east and the next ridge comes in on the backside which raises heights and temperatures once again..

It will be interesting as to how far south the front goes and will be even more interestingly to see if we manage to get another ridge to build in by late next week. The end of the 10-day run doesn’t look promising as ridging backs west and a trough drops down over the UK.

Like i’ve said, I will continue to hold cautious optimism that our wet/unsettled pattern, though not leaving, should hopefully ease and allow more in the way of high pressure and warmth to start building more frequently into the UK.

Tags: flooding, record rain, uk weather