[warning]60-70MPH WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG IRELAND’S WEST/SOUTH COAST AND SOUTHWEST ENGLAND/WALES[/warning]

It’s been closely monitored throughout this week and tonight we will feel the full affects of an unusually deep Atlantic low as it sweeps northeast between Ireland and Wales tonight!

All week the GFS has had the central pressure down to 980mb over the Irish Sea and it appears the pressure will bottom out tonight at 978mb off Anglesey. As expected since way back last Sunday, this position will support northwest gales along the exposed Atlantic west and south coast of Ireland with gusts likely to top 60-70 mph. The Southwest coast of England and Wales will also see these winds out of the same direction.

With all the ingredients in place and a powerful jet at 30-40,000 feet, we may see one or two isolated gusts of 80 mph as we may see winds from the upper levels to surface align as the upper level support catches up with the strong surface low over the Irish Sea. When surface and upper level storms stack vertically in deepening storm situations like we’ll see tonight, we often find stronger winds, confined to the mid-levels upwards can get transfered down to the surface. I believe this may often anywhere along the southern or western edge of the storm core. The area where both surface and upper level winds will be strongest.

[warning]FLOODING RAINS: 2-3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN, SOUTHERN IRELAND, SOUTHWEST ENGLAND AND WALES (ESP WINDWARD FACING UPSLOPES)[/warning]

While the winds will be noteworthy, so too will be the rainfall amounts. With a low coming up from a warmer source region, you’ve more often than not can expect higher rain totals and these can often fall at faster rates within the intense bands surrounding a still-strengthening area of low pressure. At this time of year, sea surface temperatures and the air is warmer and this means more moisture can get sucked into the system. This warm fuel can also aid in strenghening a system, especially if it’s working into a colder environment. Expect some tremendous rains from this system as it winds up later tonight, we could see rainfall rates exceed 1-2 inches PER HOUR in some areas underneath the most intense bands, this of course would produce flooding, perhaps flash flooding. Areas I believe most at risk are the west and south of Ireland as well as over Dartmoor/Exmoor as well as the Welsh Mountains and even up over the Pennines, Cumbrian Fells and Southern Uplands of Scotland could see big rains.

By Friday morning, the central pressure should start to slowly rise with the strongest winds along the coasts likely easing. However, winds could pick up across inland areas with gusts possibly touching 40-50 mph through tomorrow. East winds pick up tonight and into tomorrow over Scoitland. Rains will pile in off the North Sea on the northern side of the circulation.