>UK/Western Europe is mild while Scandinavia grows colder

Written by Mark Vogan on January 10, 2012 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

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Mild conditions dominate the UK into Wednesday while it turns increasingly colder across Scandinavia and eastern continent

THE EUROPEAN LIKE ALL THE OTHERS ARE FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH BUT THAT PERSISTENT BUILDING, EXPANDING AND INTENSIFYING COLD POOL REMAINS PERSISTENT

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This week was well advertised to be mild, even warm, by January standards across the UK, Ireland and much of the western continent with weak impulses of rain pushing along the southwesterly flow.

While the next system sweeps across northern Scotland on Wednesday, you’ll notice by Thursday that winds turn from southwest to northwest and this will make it feel closer to normal. Snow showers will be had across the far north, even at low levels and by Friday, I believe it will feel colder and if there’s any moisture to go with the chilly 3-5C highs across Scotland, we may see some wintry showers down at low levels across inland areas before a return to milder.

So, on Wednesday expect some increasing west or southwesterly winds with rain progressing southwards. While gales may impact the north, the Central Belt will likely see a generally windy day with some modest rain (heavy bursts perhaps) through the afternoon and evening. Further south, cloudy with some sunny intervals will be the rule. Temps range from 8-10C in north to 13C in south tomorrow, by Thursday 5-7C in north and 8-10C in south and by Friday 2-5C in north and 6-8C in south.

As for the upcoming weekend, it appears at this time to be mild with ridging over western Europe but more importantly, despite the chopping and changing of the models. The European stands firm with the deepening of the trough which grows colder, expands and basically re-routes weather around it. So far this season, it’s been a very progressive pattern but yet the models show this feature not only remaining over eastern Europe but it grows stronger and this suggests a more blocked pattern is developing.

I keep urging you to stop paying attention to each and every new model run and start looking at trends. So far, the main trend I’ve seen is that eastern cold pool although we’ve seen changes in the ridge over the UK-Ireland, some colder, some warmer than others.. the fact that the development, deepening and expanding of this trough tells us of a changing pattern with colder now getting into the mix.

So, while we may remain up and down, the warm days are up for Scandinavia south into Poland, Ukraine, Rusia and even south. This trough and large cold circulation will feed increasingly colder air into Europe from Siberia and I believe this expanding cold pool will migrate westwards into the UK and Ireland, covering us by January 20th onwards.

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