>Same system which killed 7 in Genoa, Italy killed 3 in southern France on Sunday

Written by Mark Vogan on November 7, 2011 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

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Models show the Arctic Oscillation flipping negative and to be followed by North Atlantic Oscillation, what does this mean for the UK-Ireland and western Europe?

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Same system which flooded Genoa has now down it’s dirsty work on the Bagnols-en-Foret area of southern France

‘Cold air drawn in and wrapped around an area of low presssure over the very warm waters of the western Mediterranean create a perfect environment for exceptional downpours.

This colder air slides into a warmer environment by air and water beneath which forces strong ‘lift’ and development of thunderstorms along the entensifying cold front. The strong, gale-force southerly flow racing ahead of the cold front forces this area of ‘extreme upward motion’ northwards up into southern France and Italy.

This combined with the ‘orographic effect’ caused by the sloping terrain from coast to Alpine foothills creates even heavier rainfall. The result is flash flooding and both northwest Italy and now southern France has seen deaths caused by this wild weather.

Heavy rains, flooding force evacuations in southern France
THE WEATHER NETWORK

France hit by storms in south, three dead
REUTERS UK

Frigid Sunday across european Russia

FRIGID ACROSS EUROPEAN RUSSIA: It was yet another very cold day throughout european Russia on Sunday.

‘Western european Russia’ warmed to no better than -4 or -5C while ‘eastern european Russia’ warmed to no better than -11 to -16C yesterday, far north and east saw ‘high’s on -20 to -22C, yes, highs!.

Most places endured overnight readings ranging from a relatively ‘mild’ -10C in Moscow to -18C in outlying suburbs, even colder with -25C well to the north and east of the capital!

Models show the Arctic Oscillation flipping negative and to be followed by North Atlantic Oscillation, what does this mean for the UK-Ireland and western Europe?

If the ensembles are correct, the NAO is set to turn negative following an earlier flip in the AO.

The flip to negative Arctic Oscillation means we are set to see the release of ‘bottled up and intensifying’ Arctic air south into the mid-latitudes and this appears to show well in the european model projections which shows the two strongest troughs of cold in the hemisphere at the moment (one over west Asia/east Europe and the other over eastern Siberia) joining forces and becoming one huge cold pool across much of Russia. This would fill with bitter cold and we would see this huge, long-wave trough then shift by this weekend and particularly into early next week WESTWARD. By mid next week, those models suggest the first cold blast for Scandinavia.

Now, what would this mean for us here in the UK as well as western mainland Europe?

Well the model suggests the breakdown of the ridge currently keeping most of the continent except for Russia south to Turkey, very mild. Departures at the moment are near 10F above normal and this will rise further through this week and into next while the cold now holding over Russia is now beating down those numbers to normal and below, however, the trough of much colder air shows signs of intensifying over Russia and this may mean the current cold there may be wimpy compared to mid next week. Norway, Sweden and Finland which are about the warmest departures from normal in all of the continent may find themselves shivering next week in a sharp and shocking return to seasonal reality as Arctic air moves south.

The model shows high pressure getting squeezed and shoved west as the cold matches west towards the low countries.

The big question is, do we see this cold reach the UK perhaps by around the 18-20th? The release of cold south from the pole and the emsembles showing a clear flip to negative in the NAO would suggest this to be the case. However, a negative NAO doesn’t mean a deffinate cold blast is coming to the UK but one must see the pattern and keep this option open.

We shall keep looking at this situation as it progresses.

Stay tuned!

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Canada Latest

Praries blanketed by first significant snowstorm while it remains mild across southern Ontario

A large contrast between Regina and Toronto.

While the Praries recieve their first significant snowstorm followed by their first cold blast, it’s balmy across southern Ontario today. A few hours ago, while it was a brisk -14C in Regina, SK, Toronto, ON was basking in 15C. That’s a huge 29C temperature difference.