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In Today’s Blog
#BRITISH ISLES-EUROPE
High Pressure Building northwards into UK, Warm, sunny days ahead for southern, central areas, somewhat dissapointing across Scotland
#UNITED STATES
What Can You Expect for Your Labor Day Weekend?
In Today’s News
Tropics Remain Active, Must Be Watched…
Gulf of Mexico Disturbance Likely to Develop but Where Will It Hit Along Gulf Coast? Hurricane Katia Soon to Become a ‘Major’ Category 3 Storm in Central Atlantic
Concerns With Gulf System
1) Major Flooding Rains Expected Along Gulf Coast, feared levee beach for vunerable New Orleans?
2) Longer time over warm water and conducive atmospheric environment may intensify storm quickly
3) System that may linger for days, intensifying all the time may severily impact Gulf oil production
Though Katia is better organised and one to watch along the East Coast, it’s the area of convection stretching from the Yucatan Channel up to the Louisiana coast we must pay closest attention to. Not only will it be a major rain producer over the holiday weekend with possibly a uniform 6-15 inches of rain from Lake Charles, through Baton Rouge, Biloxi to Mobile with some localised 20 inch amounts, it’s the fact that we are going to likely see a relaxing of the hostile atmosphere over the northern Gulf in the next few days and this would allow development of this disturbance into at least a tropical storm if not a hurricane.
Areas of widespread convection like we see in the Gulf can gather quickly, drawing in all the available energy surrounding it. The strong thunderstom clusters currently blowing up is helped by the hot waters beneath, however, have a quickly forming closed low and you’ve got tropical cyclone development perfection. In other words, you couldn’t have a better environment for development.
Waters are near 90 degrees in spots in the central and northern Gulf and give just a 48 hour window in a low sheared environment over the high octane fuel beneath and you could find a rapidly intensifying tropical cyclone. That is my concern. The problem then becomes, with perhaps a cat 1 or 2 storm by say Mon or Tues, the longer it has over the waters and if it’s moving around and not spinning over the same spot, upwelling colder waters, we may find an even bigger problem as this system could potentially ramp up to major status by say the end of next week. This would mean the US would be at high risk as the system has nowhere to go but south since it’s landlocked on pretty much 3 sides.
Latest from the Networks
Gulf weather system likely to bring 10-15 inches of rain to New Orleans over weekend
NOLA.COM
Hurricane Katia churns in the Atlantic
CNN
Brewing Storm Puts Long-Term Pressures on Gulf Oil Rigs
ACCUWEATHER.COM
HURRICANE IRENE CONTINUED COVERAGE
THE AFTERMATH
Flooding Continues Along N.J.’s Passaic River
FOX NEWS
Northeast mops up, counts costs as Irene water recedes
NBC NEWS
Residents review ‘devastating’ damage as waters recede in Vermont
CNN
Irene floods bringing toxic sludge to NJ homes
CBS NEWS
Spirit of Vermonters Remains Hopeful in Midst of Disaster
ABC NEWS
In Other News
August 2011: Record-shattering Month
THE WEATHER CHANNEL
THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY
TODAY’S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER
HIGH: 114° at Bullhead City, AZ
LOW: 20° at Stanley, ID
TODAY’S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE
HIGH: 74° (23.1°C) at Chivenor (Devon)
LOW: 37° (2.8°C) at South Newington (Oxfordshire)
TODAY’S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE
HIGH: 63°
LOW: 50°
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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