>MAJOR SNOWSTORM CRANKING UP (Note: This post will be updated throughout this major event)

>Reports of 32 inches at Elkridge, Maryland

Baltimore, MD (Photo courtesy of Baltimore Sun)

An area of over 10 million from the south suburbs of metropolitan Washington DC up to Baltimore and up to Philadelphia appear to be right in the “eye of the storm” which the strongest, most intense band will roar in later today and rage through tonight and into early Saturday morning. This storm which will really crank as the intensifying surface storm bombs out of the Virginia coastline tonight. You know you’ve got a monster storm system when you see how much water is covering and riding right into this system out of the Southeast part of the country. The vast rains of 2-4 inches are creating problems of their own down across the southern states but all that moisture is pushing northeast and into the cold air, whilst more cold is getting drafted in from the north and northwest (Midwest). The big issues are coastal areas of Virginia, Delaware and the Jersey shore will have trendous beach erosion and winds sustained at 20-40 mph with gusts beyond 50 mph. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some gusts between 60-70 mph. South Jersey, Delaware, eastern Virginia will likely see the worst conditions with a combo of both heavy snow and gales, creating blizzard conditions. Even in Washington, Baltimore and Philadelphia, they too may see near or actual blizzard conditions for a time.

This storm is a major deal. I am expecting upwards of 18 inches for DC and Baltimore metro areas but even Philly may see that too. Worst case, they see upwards of 24-28 inches of snow.

**NEW INFORMATION**Complex Dynamics that make a Monster

With moisture connections stretching from way out in the Pacific and from Mexico all the way across to Bermuda this shows the vast field of the atmosphere this system is feeding off of. The shear amount of water across the southeastern states that getting lifted north and east into the colder air that’s over the Middle Atlantic states shows really just how much this system, this area of low pressure with a STRONG SURFACE STORM is really going to crank up and use all the vast amount of energy. Milder, moister air drfting out of the Gulf, the enormous cold pool over the Plains, Ohio Valley, Northeast and down to the Mid-Atlantic, the Gulf stream off the East Coast is all coming together here to produce what will likely be a historic storm for the Mid-Atlantic states.

An intense snow area will develop right across an area from the south suburbs of the Washington area, up through Baltimore, Philadelphia, Trention and across to even Atlantic City, creating a huge issue with travel which I believe will be deemed impossible later tonight and through the morning hours tomorrow as an all out blizzard rages. Coastal winds will drive wave and wind onshore along the Virginia, Delaware and Jersey Shore with sustained 20-40 mph winds and gusts that top 50mph and I could well believe winds gusting to 60-70 mph. Those winds combined with the heavy snow WILL create a whiteout.

How much snow?

Boston to Hartford to Providence

It appears right now that the New England area down through the greater Boston area and possibly even Hartford may see no snow from this, amazingly as their underneath the cold high and this high will be strong enough to field all the moisture to their south, deflecting this out into the Atlantic rather than pushing up the coast.

Greater New York City, the wildcard!

The New York City area is truely the wild card with this storm. Yes, it lies to the northern edge of the playing field but with colder air aloft and the possibility of 3-6 that may think is likely, Joe Bastardi and others at AccuWeather believe with the colder air, the NYC area may see a more substantial 8-14 inches of snow..

Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington DC

Boy, this storm is going to be a nasty one with all the wind and snow one could ask for. Certainly, this will make up for the last 2-3 years snow drought that this area has seen. I fully expect 16-24 inches for all these cities, but higher elevated areas of Virginia and across Garrett County, Maryland may see between 30-40 inches from this snowstorm with thundersnow and intense banding as the core of this system roars in as the actual low pressure center sits to the areas southeast…

More coming up soon!

source:
http://www.accuweather.com/radar-state.asp?partner=rss&traveler=0&zipcode=&level=state&type=SIR&anim=0&site=VA_
source: www.weather.com

More from AccuWeather (http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=rss&traveler=0&article=7)
How Hard Will It Snow?
Updated: Thursday, February 04, 2010 2:54

The East Coast of the United States can be very stormy in the winter. Storms that form here can become very powerful because of the large temperature differences that often exist. The air over the Gulf Stream is quite mild, while the air over the continent can be very cold. This creates a huge weight imbalance in the atmosphere, which is what drives the circulation of the intensifying coastal storm.
Often, there will be an energy transfer from a storm moving up west of the Appalachians to a secondary system along the East Coast. This is basically what is going to happen Friday and Saturday. One storm center will come into Tennessee and Kentucky, then there will be a new, more significant development along the Carolina coastline. The coastal storm is the one that is going to do most of the dirty work.
In most winter storms the rate of snowfall varies at least to some degree hour by hour. There can be temporary lulls and there can be times when it is snowing so hard that you can’t see your hand in front of your face. Rate of snowfall criteria is shown below.
The storm that will hit the mid-Atlantic later Friday into Saturday morning will put down 1 to 2 inches of snow per hour at times, but probably not 3 or 4. Those excessive rates are reserved for the meanest of winter storms. When it is snowing that hard, the house across the street completely disappears from view.
Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.

Original post

Interesting blog post from Jesse Ferrell’s Blog!

Mid-Atlantic Storm Compared to December 19th
I wanted to compare the accumulation map from the big December storm in the mid-Atlantic vs. our newest snow prediction map for Friday & Saturday vs. Ironically, tomorrow is National Weatherperson’s Day. I wish all of you the best of luck whether you want the snow or not.

As you can see, the biggest difference with this storm is that it will produce significant snow through the Ohio Valley. Outside of that, the highest snowfall amounts will fall in very similar areas (with the exception of southwest Virginia and southern West Virginia). Although our highest prediction is 18 inches, the NWS is predicting as much as 2 feet, and I suspect if we end up being incorrect, it will be on the low end. We’re also not showing higher amounts in the Laurel Highlands which normally occurs there because of upsloping and colder temperatures. If this forecast is correct, the I-95 corridor from New York City to Boston will not get nearly as much snow as last time, and Washington D.C. and Baltimore won’t be as lucky either (though they could still get a foot). And finally, the heavy snow will not reach as far south down the spine of the Appalachians, at least without getting interrupted by sleet and freezing rain.
As always, we want to see your pictures and reports this weekend from the moment when the snow begins to when it ends. Upload your photos to our Photo Gallery and Facebook, and give us your snow measurements on Facebook and Twitter. If you’d like to participate in a fast-paced, more technical discussion about the storm, check out our Forums where thousands of people are talking about this storm.
If you haven’t read these related blog entries I wrote this week yet, you may wish to:
– Why Are All Snowstorms on Weekends?– NE Snow Drought, Snow Surplus: Who`s Got It!
Timing will be key with this storm as people wrap up their week and consider going out Friday night. This storm will be no joke and you don’t want to be caught outside (no matter how you travel) in the heavy snow area. Here is an article and video about the timing in major cities.

Check back to Jesse’s blog regularly as he always has great stuff!

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=rss&blog=Weathermatrix&pgurl=/mtweb/content/Weathermatrix/archives/2010/02/midatlantic_storm_compared_to_december_19th.asp