>A surprise winter for most, but not me (Scoring the first half of winter in Britain)

THE UNITED KINDOM AND THE LOW COUNTRIES ALONG THE NORTH SEA COAST

The Arctic Oscillation and particularly the North Atlantic Oscillation Signalling suggests a generally mild month of November for Western Europe and the United Kingdom. A positive NAO and AO to begin the month forces a strong Atlantic (zonal) flow across the UK, France, Netherlands, Germany, Czech Republic with some severe gale-centers likely to progress across the continent effecting Ireland, Scotland and England first with 60-80 mph winds, torrential rains and some damage potential is likely. Flooding is also likely, high elevated areas of the Scottish Highlands and Western European countries are likely to see winds in excess of 100-150 mph..”

NOVEMBER ACCURACY OF 90+% Scoring 9 out of 10

Because I was able to forecast correctly the warmer than normal temperatures, persistent storminess and flood and wind damage potential I feel a 90+% accuracy score is fair. (scoring 9 out of 10)

I predicted for the month of December that the pattern would continue the same from November into the first half of December which I did as the first half of the period was above normal and mild, storminess persisted.

I correctly predicted the turnaround within the final 1-2 week time frame leading up to Christmas Day. I also predicted that as of the 20th through Christmas Day, snowfall would cover MUCH of the British Isles bringing a white Christmas to most. My diffination of a white Christmas is having a covering of snow on Christmas morning…

Remarkably the snows arrived Dec 19th. I was within 1 day of my forecast. (accuracy 99%) for snow arrival. For forecasting correctly a white Christmas for the majority of Britain.. 100% accuracy. I did not forecast that all coastal areas would recieve a white Christmas but some coastal areas may which indeed was accurately predicted and occured..

I also predicted a progressively colder period after Dec 20th through into January which was indeed correct.

Quote from forecast

“DECEMBER 2009

Continued mild and unsettled over UK and Low Countries, much colder over the continent to start the month, Major cold pushes westward into the Low Countries and UK to end the month.

As Northern Ireland/Ireland, Scotland, England and Wales continue to experience above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation into December as well as Denmark, Netherlands, western Germany, and France, central European countries will start to see normal temperatures drop into below normal territory in the first 2 weeks of December. I strongly believe much of Europe should become progressively colder with Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia feeling the cold from November 10th onwards and the intensifying cold will push westwards. Abundant snow cover should aid in strengthening the Arctic high as it drops over Europe and expands westward throughout December. As the continent drops from November’s “Normal temps” to early December’s normal to mid-December’s below normal, The British Isles will become colder in the last two weeks leading up to Christmas.

BY CHRISTMAS 2009 I EXPECT TO SEE SNOW COVERING MUCH OF THE BRITISH ISLES, SCOTLAND, ENGLAND, WALES, IRELAND AND NORTHERN IRELAND SHOULD SEE SNOW AND A SIBERIAN-SCANDINAVIAN HIGH SETTLE IN FOR THE ERIOD BETWEEN DEC 20TH THROUGH NEW YEAR.

By Christmas, Europe will be under snow and high pressure with a persistent sweep of arctic air blowing straight from Siberia and interior Europe across Poland, Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium and across the North Sea into Britain. This cold progression leading into Christmas will be a result of a major hemispheric flip from mainly positive AO/NAO to negative as Greenland warms as a blocking ridge sets up over the North Atlantic. November through mid-December sees the Atlantic jets and a naturally cooling continent set the stage with heavy snows and as the continent continues cooling, the cold basically will swell westward. The pressure forced in the atmosphere will switch the NAO/AO index and all the cold bottled up across the pole will drain southwards..”

DECEMBER ACCURACY 98% (scoring 9.8 out of 10.)

A start to January 2010 where December left off… high pressure from Scandinavia/Siberia dominating…

The worst period of cold settled in around New Year and gripped all of the country for the first 10 days of 2010. I sucessfully predicted that a period of a week to 10 days could support days failing to hit freezing in Glasgow and Edinbugh and nights that may drop down to between -10C and -18C on several nights. This indeed was very accurately predicted as the temperatures struggled in both Glasgow and Edinbugh to get above freezing for the first 10-days of the month and overnight lows with snow on the ground did fall to between -10C and -18C. On the night of Jan 8th, Glasgow hit a low of -12C whilst the high warmed to a mere -6C. Warmest Glasgow has achieved so far in January is just 4C. Equally as accurate was Edinbugh which also fell within my predicted numbers with days below freezing or just barely. Two nights hit -10C and the coldest hit -11C. These are by far the lowest readings seen in both these cities in well over a decade and the coldest and longest combined blast since at least 1979.

I also forecasted the Highlands of Scotland to expierence it’s lowest achieved lows in years. I did state that a run at the all-time record low for Britain was possible. But my official call was for a low at one of the cold spots within the Highlands to hit between -18C and -22C. I strongly believed a low of -20C or colder would be achieved.

Well the lowest was in fact -22C reported in the northwest Highland location of Altnaharra. The coldest high predicted was -10C, It managed to remain no warmer than -12C on one particular day at Braemar. A few locales within the Highland saw -18C, Braemar hit -19C and one night had all the perfect ingredients for a run at the all-time low with the core of coldest air closest to the Highlands, deep snowpack and a frigid day which set a great base for a low into the -25C range, however cloud and snow rolled in spoiling the chances.

As for England I predicted heavy snow as well as minimumal lows achieved could run between -15C and -20C, again, numbers not seen for many years. An outstandly cold night found from Manchester to Oxfordshire brought remarkable lows. Woodford (within Greater Manchester) shivered with a low of -18C whilst Manchester Airport hit a bone-chilling -15C. Benson, Oxfordshire, within 70 miles northwest of London plunged to -17C.

I managed to get within 3 degrees of the predicted low for Scotland and 2 degrees for England as my minimuim low was -25C for Scotland and -20C for England…

January 1-14 ACCURACY 96% (Scoring 9.6 out of 10) this includes the small error margin of just 2 degrees for England and 3 degrees for Scotland. I was within the range for lowest achievable in both Glasgow and Edinburgh.

People and communities became stranded as well as roads closed, a very accurate call within my forecast!!

Currently many parts of Britain are now suffering widespread pipe bursts.. As you can see, this was also forecasted!!

Quote from forecast

“Places across Scotland, England, Wales and Ireland may loose power and folks in rural areas may become stranded by deep snow drifts as roads close. The risk of widespread pipe bursts is a major concern as the cold could become severe and prolonged.”

Concluding comments

What I feel is important here to state, like every other forecaster, I DID NOT BASE ANY OF THIS FORECAST ON COMPUTER FORECAST MODELING WHICH MAKES THIS AN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVELY ACCURATE AND UNIQUE FORECAST FOR PERIOD ONE.

LOOKING AHEAD: FEBRUARY 2010

February won’t be a warm month I don’t believe and the warmer period shaping now and expected to arrival proper tomorrow (Friday 15th) will last for about 10 days before another period of winter arrives. How long it lasts I am unsure of at this time but I do expect a duraction of between a week to 10 days of well below normal temps, more snow and worst case scenario we take a run at the intensity of cold seen the first 10 days of Jan. I would say at the moment that phase two of what will become a truely memorable winter will hit at the close of January and may last through at least the first half of February.

My overall score for the period November 1 through January 14 is 94% accuracy, scoring 9.4 out of 10.