>I am delighted to state my successful prediction of the pattern from end of October through early December which was first dicussed on this blog from as early as July and with numerous statements which I will highlight below throughout October.

I also looked back to my June release of my Canada Winter Forecast which stated November, December cold and the high probability of snowfall 150% of normal across British Columbia and Alberta. Mentioned was Whistler. Check this out…

link to article: http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/2009/07/canadian-winter-forecast-2009-severe.html

ABSTRACT FROM ORIGINAL ARTICLE POSTED JULY 11 (first released June 28)
“The worst of winter may be in a corridor from Churchill to St Johns, NF after a possibly tame start as western Canada experiences big Pacific snows which build snowpacks to 150% of normal from October through Jan 1 with potential there for RECORD SNOWS in the British Columbia and Alberta Rockies including Banff and Whistler. The early snows (Oct-Dec) may come AHEAD of the Arctic front and this may set the ground work for some of the COLDEST NOVEMBER-DECEMBER air in 20-50 YEARS.”

Despite the fact that it might not produce 20-50 year cold, the statement regarding record snowfall ahead an an Arctic front is correct since the Arctic air did bring frigid cold and Whistler is correct for RECORD SNOW since they recieved their most November snow on record there (check this out http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2009/11/19/bc-whistler-record-snow.html?ref=rss). Bear in mind this was stated from an original article BEFORE this blog was created on July 1.

Early December cold which would impact the Western US and NOT east was correctly predicted in my November 1 US Winter forecast release…

Link to article: http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/2009/11/official-united-states-winter-forecast.html

ABSTRACT FROM ORIGINAL ARTICLE NOV 1.
“With the weak to possibly moderate El Nino forming in the eastern equatorial Pacific the trough now over the Western US will migrate eastwards as the Pacific warming feedback pushes the trough east, and gives way to a warm Pacific/Great Basin high. Before then I expect to see abundant moisture drive into the West Coast between Crescent City, Calif and the Canadian border.I also expect a Major Arctic Outbreak sometime in early to mid-December that will be the opening sequence of things to come further east 2-3 weeks later as the flip of the Arctic Oscillation kicks in!If the atmospheric mechanics do what I expect them to do, then we should see a milder but stormy pattern through November with no real Arctic air over US airspace but ever chillier air will become entrained in the strong Pacific flow as strong low’s spin off the Pacific and pull down some cold Canadian air, thus giving way to a possible series of wind, rain and snowstorms for the Rockies which will drive snow totals above to well above normal over the northern and central Rockies through much of December. This will bring false hopes of another bumper year for ski resorts in the Pacific Northwest and down across the Lake Tahoe area, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana and Idaho.”

As for the UK and particularly Western European Low Countries here is what was stated back on Oct 31. REMEMBER WHAT HAS OCCURED WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD HERE, RECORD FLOODING FOR ENGLAND, WINDSTORMS (SOUTHERN ENGLAND) WARMER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL ACROSS W. EUROPE…

Link to article http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/2009/11/official-united-kingdom-and-europe.html

ABSTRACT FROM ORIGINAL ARTICLE NOV 1.
“After a warm, wet and windy November across much of Western Europe, much of the continent will become colder and snowier than normal as December leads into January 2010 with a high potential for near continent-wide snow cover and extreme cold which spreads east to west under a powerful Arctic-Siberian High.

NOVEMBER 2009

Progressively colder throughout November over eastern Europe as the reservoir of Arctic air swells over the pole and the continental effect settles in naturally forcing the deep interior nations to get cold first..

THE UNITED KINDOM AND THE LOW COUNTRIES ALONG THE NORTH SEA COAST
The Arctic Oscillation and particularly the North Atlantic Oscillation Signalling suggests a generally mild month of November for Western Europe and the United Kingdom. A positive NAO and AO to begin the month forces a strong Atlantic (zonal) flow across the UK, France, Netherlands, Germany, Czech Republic with some severe gale-centers likely to progress across the continent effecting Ireland, Scotland and England first with 60-80 mph winds, torrential rains and some damage potential is likely. Flooding is also likely, high elevated areas of the Scottish Highlands and Western European countries are likely to see winds in excess of 100-150 mph.. COOLING CONTINENT AND STRONG ATLANTIC FLOW MEANS HEAVY SNOWS As a westerly flow drives persistent low pressure systems off the Atlantic, colder air will bleed into northern Scandinavia and countries from the Baltic nations, Poland on eastward across the Ukraine, Moldova and into Romania and Bulgaria as the natural progression of less daylight and continental cooling sets in, heavy rains will turn to heavy snows as the air mass is cold, The Alps of France, Italy, Switzerland, Austria will all see heavy and possibly record snowfall through November. Big time snowfall is likely simply because of the strong Atlantic push of moisture rich air and a progressively colder air mass building across eastern Europe as winter sets in. DECEMBER 2009 Continued mild and unsettled over UK and Low Countries, much colder over the continent to start the month, Major cold pushes westward into the Low Countries and UK to end the month. As Northern Ireland/Ireland, Scotland, England and Wales continue to experience above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation into December as well as Denmark, Netherlands, western Germany, and France, central European countries will start to see normal temperatures drop into below normal territory in the first 2 weeks of December. I strongly believe much of Europe should become progressively colder with Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia feeling the cold from November 10th onwards and the intensifying cold will push westwards. Abundant snow cover should aid in strengthening the Arctic high as it drops over Europe and expands westward throughout December. As the continent drops from November’s “Normal temps” to early December’s normal to mid-December’s below normal, The British Isles will become colder in the last two weeks leading up to Christmas.

Note my statement recognising back on Oct 31 that the commencement of December would remain unsettled and mild, THOUGH WE HAVE BECOME COLDER it is still milder overall for time of year, I remain firm in my belief that colder times are ahead perhaps within the next 2 weeks we may see snow since the Arctic is unloading steadily, all we need is the turn to neg NAO then we get the discharge of cold, collide this with an Atlantic low and BINGO!!

Link to article http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/2009/11/mid-latitude-storms-rev-roam-as-pole-of.html

ABSTRACT FROM ORIGINAL ARTICLE NOV 16.
“As for the first real blast of Arctic origin air, rather than Pacific-polar air that’s getting entrained by Pacific storm centers that progress west to east across the continent will be as the commencement of a “flip” in the AO begins which I believe may happen in the early part of December. From eastern WA and Oregon, across Montana and down to northern Arizona, New Mex and Texas may see a brutal commencement to December with the core of cold centered over Montana! Regina, Saskatoon and Calgary may experience -40s at night and places such as West Yellowstone may bottom out close to 50 below.. Denver and Billings may take a run at 15 to 20 below zero.. Salt Lake City may see their coldest in many years with a run at 5 to 10 below there..

Folks “east” of the Mississippi will experience a still mild pattern and even some warm temps as the deepening western trough leads to a eastern ridge but the growing western cold will lead to a speedly end in sight to mild for East Coast and Coastal plain residents. By mid-December both Western Europe and Eastern US residents will see increasing cold at the same time the brunt of eastern Europe’s winter and the core of cold pushes east across the USA and west across Europe!! This sets the stage to a “lock down pattern” not a progressive one.”

Here is an October 15 statement which highlighted the events brought on either directly or indirectly from Tyhoon Melor was the building blocks to a hemispheric flip to positive Arctic Oscillation which would bring a warm November, Note the statement of unusual warmth from Minneapolis, Chicago to NYC…

Link to article http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/2009/10/arctic-oscillation-to-switch-positive.html

ABSTRACT FROM ORIGINAL ARTICLE OCT 15.
“The arrival of the remnants of Tyhoon Melor and the smash into the American West Coast by a cell of it’s energy, this is the building blocks to a new hemisphere-wide pattern that will control the next 6-8 weeks of weather across much of America and Europe through the rest of October and November with potential for record mildness!! 20s(C) in southern England, Netherlands, Germany, Belgium and even mid-teens (C) across Scotland and southern Scandinavia?. This could be possible at the same time northern Canada and Alaska experiences record cold through November and early December before a big atmospheric flip commences in the mid-December to Chistmas period… I wouldn’t be surprised to see unusual warmth of 70s for Minneapolis, Chicago to New York in November with a strong west flow across the US.”

In light to the statement regarding unusual warmth, Minneapolis and Chicago as well as New York City experienced unusually mild weather… Check this out from Minneapolis http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/columns/updraft/archive/2009/11/twin_cities_november_snowless.shtml?refid=0
and for Chicago http://cbs2chicago.com/local/november.chicago.warmer.2.1343511.html

Some forecast numerical modelling suggested a cold trough into the Eastern US early December but my forecast clearly stated that the Western US would experience the trough and teleconnection ridging would effect the east not the other way round. Boston’s 69 and Bangor;s 63 as well as record or near record warmth into Ontario-Quebec is not much of a surprise really.

The flooding in Britain and the new rainfall record DID to a degree surprise me but what did not was the flooding, the southern England windstorm which generated gusts to 100 mph in Kent and the persistency in mild weather. The record or near record mild November across the USA and southern Canada fits with the type of pattern (pos NAO and AO) and therefore warmth west to east was expected fully.

My biggest questions now are, how cold do we get over the next 8 weeks? My November to early December forecast package has been a success to a greater percentage to what I imagined. What I would state as INCORRECT was that I may have overdone the cold in the eastern European countries including Turkey where I have recieved some emails from but the cold is now starting to freshen there..

If you wish to send me feedback or disagree with anything in this post please feel free to email me.
Thanks for your support.

Thanks for reading.
-Mark