>2009 HURRICANE SEASON IS ALIVE AS THE END IS NEAR

Just when I thought the 2009 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season was dead back before the close of August, so had have witnessed a hurricane landfall on the coast of Nicaragua we have a high potential for this remnant low to return back to the exceptional high heat potential of the western Caribbean Sea and rev up into a “Major Hurricane”. In the words of Joe Bastardi at AccuWeather, “This water has not been touched all season” and therefore I agree with his thinking that if Ida returns to water and with a system that was organising as it came ashore, it may just light up once back over the warmest region of water anywhere in the Atlantic..

This would be quite amazing to see a major hurricane for early November but in the world of weather, anything is possible.

PLAINS HEAT

As far as weather across the USA, we have major heat building over the Plains states and the eastern Rockies. As all the cold is bottled over the pole and strengthening, the air underneath is moving faster west to east as the thermal contrast becomes larger as we loose more and more solar energy as winter progresses. When a positive AO and NAO is present we often get rip-roaring westerlies and with that, comes big ocean storms in the Pacific and Atlantic like we are seeing. We also see fall heat waves or certainly days of abnormal warmth. Yesterday saw a 74-degree high at Billings, whilst 70s was seen from the southern plains up to the Dakotas. A strong downslope flow of the Front Range of the Rockies forces this air to heat and compress as it decends the mountains, thus bringing 70s and even the odd 80-degree high to some places that could easily has snow on the ground.

BRITISH COLUMBIA – GREAT BRITAIN STORMS CONTINUE

The West Coast North America Europe Storm Cycle continues as part of the theory that a positive Arctic Oscillation is excellerating the jet stream and forcing oceanic-maritime air across the continents bringing milder, stormier weather and I believe this to continue for another couple of weeks. What I do see though is as daylight decreases, the air is cooling even with an Atlantic or Pacific origin as thus this pattern will increase snowfall in the Alps of Europe and western North America. The intensifying air over the North Pole will also creep through cracks in the pattern, putting too much strain on the westerlies, therefore troughs will develop as well as heat that forms to the lee of major mountains such as we’re seeing east of the Rockies will also aid in trying to make a zonal jet, more meridional. A more amplifiedf jet will help entrain some Arctic air in bringing some places such as easterbn Europe below normal temperature-wise as well as bringing winter to these places.

These are some early thoughts, more to come shortly….

Thanks for reading.

-Mark