>Warming and Storming pattern begins after Germany hits -24C for coldest October night on record!

Written by on October 22, 2009 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

>

November Could be month which leads many into false sense of security for upcoming winter

A flip in the hemispheric pattern is changing the feeling of the air across the board as the Pacific and Atlantic flow opens up and the Arctic pile-driver shuts down after a record breaking punch of both snow and cold that many places have never seen so early in both interior Europe and North America.

October will end very different to when it began and I believe what’s ahead will be in many places, an absense of winter, but the storm machine will crank up and this is beginning to show on the West Coast of Canada and the USA. The very absense of winter here in the mid-latitude belt of North America, Europe and Asia could be the harbringer of a wolf that’s in the cage but getting angry, and angrier. One that’s been starved over the past several years, but will be trained to bite and bite hard AFTER millions are convinced winter forecasts around the world have been a bust!

So why are we turning milder? No it isn’t Global Warming or because the Copenhagen Conference is approaching but after a brutal period in which Germany hit a new cold record for October with a low of -24C at a notorious cold spot high in a Bavarian Alpine valley. Not forgetting the record early cold and snow across Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah and across the Plains states to State College, Pa. The Alps of south-central Europe was slammed by the biggest snows in 25 years along with record cold which sent numbers to -11C in Poland. Arctic air and the shift to a positive Arctic Oscillation is meaning the westerlies increase, Ocean storms will wind up and become enhanced as the zonal flow will mean storminess and warmth crossing the continents across much of the hemisphere as the origin of air is off the ocean and not from the pole.
The deflection of the polar flow means this will bottle the cold air over the pole and with it’s collection over the pole at a time of “building”, this intensifies that cold air as it has less spread and coverage. I also believe if this didn’t happen, then we may not see as much cold later when winter kicks in.
This means, the Arctic can reload it’s Arctic air in time with the decrease of daylight and increase in snow cover. Building the Arctic reservoir now means that when the AO switches negative again, you have a mature and fully loaded pool of Arctic air which can come crashing down when winter has set in and the land masses are covered more by snow.

DOES OCTOBER’S RECORD BREAKING COLD AND SNOW SO EARLY TELL US WHAT MAY LIE AHEAD?

I wonder, with the severity of cold that hit unusually early and where it hit, whether this could be a sign of what COULD happen later this winter. I was very upfront early on that I believed this winter was different to any of the past decade and with different signalling, that suggested to me that the potential for Arctic air to be more severe was higher simply because of reading the pattern of previous winters and aligning those winters up with other driving forces such as El Nino following the strong La Nina, the collapse of the warm PDO and the increasing strength of the cold PDO around 2007-08. Even the fact that there was less sea ice melt this summer, did this allow a rapidly intensifying batch of Arctic air to form and then with the pattern in place, the meridional flow forced this unusually cold air south.

But, it was the strength of this cold air for early October that surprised me. Was this in relation to the fact that chilly air was present in the mid to upper levels throughout the summer and therefore easier for the Arctic to work with already “chilly” air and therefore the Arctic air pulled the cold air aloft down to the surface?


Last winter in Europe also could be an early sign of cooling. I believe North America has already commenced it’s downward trend in NET temperture from the 1998 peak with the PDO being one of the driving forces that is forcing North America to cool off. Europe is slower with a warm Atlantic still but after last winter and now with a colder North Atlantic this year. Things are still well in line with what could be a very significant winter for cold and snow.


Like Joe Bastardi and other long range forecasters have stated, in order to see maximum cold from the Lakes to Atlantic, we need to see the Pacific/ El Nino warm BEFORE it cools!


The solar cycle is what is a major player in why I am seperating 2002-2003 from 2009-10 with this winter ahead being worse. Also the cooldown has begun, we see a colder Pacific, North America is colder now than a few years ago after back to back cold winters which have been centered from Wyoming to Wisconsin. Canada has seen two straight winters that have been severe. The Arctic is recovering with less ice melt in 2009 than 2008 and 2007.

By combining all players, I still am driving home the idea we shall see a significant winter and I shall give you my full thoughts and ideas on October 31 when I issue my final winter forecast for the UK-Europe and United States.

Thanks for reading.

-Mark

Follow us

Connect with Mark Vogan on social media to get notified about new posts and for the latest weather updates.

Subscribe via RSS Feed Connect on YouTube

Leave a Reply

Top