>A complex Pacific atmosphere which started as Tyhoon Melor which hammered Japan early in the week brought a similar punch to California and Nevada like it did to Japan.

This storm center spinning over the Gulf of Alaska has rotated energy through two powerful channels of upper level wind energy. The atmospheric dynamics, very El Ninoish sent a northern branch jet stream into Oregon and Northern CA whilst a southern, sub tropical branch fed into southern CA dropping over an inch and a half of rainfall over Downtown Los Angeles and stripped away recent memories of scorching heat and wildfires.


Those scares left behind by the Station Fire and others, brought mudslides and floods to many areas where the land, soils are bare and nothing to hold in moisture under the soil.

Upslope from the southwest (tropical) flow created massive rainfall totals in the foothills of the San Bernardino, San Gabriel Mtns whilst over 21 inches appears to have topped the list at Mining Ridge in Monterrey County with 21.34 inches. Winds also topped 70 mph across the Bay Area as well as dumping between 2 and a half to over a foot of rain, heaviest amounts almost always found on the windward side of mountains because of the orographic effect!

San Francisco recieved 2.48 inches but there are a few places that got hit by over a foot, they are, Mount Umunhum with 13.23, Chalk Peak with 14.41 and Three Rivers with an astounding 16.46 inches.


Interesting Info from Ken Clark’s Blog:


-Downtown San Francisco with 2.49 inches of rain was the most rain in a 24-hour period ever in October since records began back in 1849.-Monterey with 2.66 inches of rain set a record for any 24-hour period in October.-In many places in Central California this storm was the biggest, or near the biggest, since the Columbus Day storm back in 1962.-At USC in Los Angeles the 1.93 inches that fell was the biggest storm since back on January 26-27, 2008 when 2.13 inches fell. -Fresno California has 1.39 inches, the most rain that fell in one storm since January 4-5, 2008.


Interstate 5 that runs down the spine of the Great Central Valley was under water at Sacramento due to torrential rains and on CBS 5 in San Francisco, they said, this was the worst October Storm in about 45 years!!


Many trees have been brought down as well as power loss.

A gust was recorded at Tahoe City, NV at 135 mph, for October, that’s astonishing, for December, January or February, that’s not all that unusual.

Winds of 120 mph were achieved at the 8,700 foot level also.

West Coast Storm, the weather driver across America?

Interestingly, the main storm center that has produced all this mess and disruption to California and other Western States over the past 2-3 days is actually still spinning over the Gulf of Alaska, but it’s the feeding process of two jet streams into the West Coast and across the country that is bringing in seperate WAVES of wind and precipitation energy, it’s like a pinewheel effect that’s producing pockets of clouds and clear spells from coast to coast and it is also that storm systes that’s roaring these individuels capsules of energy towards the Eastern Seaboard and devloping a strong autumnal storm system over the Appalachains and along the Delmarva up to the Jersey Shore/Long Island shore. The warmth of the Atlantic Ocean will translate to feeding this energy that was once a piece of the California storm that will form a strong Fall Nor’easter.

This two piece storm with two distinct low’s, one which will ride northward up through West Virginia and the mountains of central PA and the other just east of the Jersey shore will wrap it’s precipitation and wind flow in from the northeast and will likely excellerate surface winds towards the 6-70 mph range, drop 2-4 inches of rain from Hartford to Baltimore and bring heavy snow to interior areas and especially the high elevations of West Virginia (2-4 inches), central PA and into southern New England. Some remote mountain locations may top 5-6 inches of snow and major tree damage is possible since trees there are still laden with leaves…

As the cooler, wetter, cloudier days of recent pass, we see major warming from LA to San Francisco as high pressure moves in, winds turn out of the east and LA tops the 80s today and even 90 tomorrow.

Future of El Nino and California weather this winter

I do believe we shall see a few major storms roll into central and southern California, bringing similar results to this recent storm. Some days may see LA top 2-3 inches with stormy conditions which may bring down some tree limbs and create flooding across the basin and foot hills as well as cooler, cloudier days down as far as San Diego. Hurricane force winds are likely to be experienced by between 2-3 major storm systems that ride out of the Gulf of Alaska into the central California coast, somes places may see 70-100 pmh gusts between Point Conception and Crescent City. Rains totals from the central coast to Oregon border may top 5-15 inches of rain in individual multi-day storms, some 200-350 inches of snow in some snow-catching lower elevated areas such as the foot hills of the Sierra and Coast Ranges between 3,500 – 6,500 ft. Highest elevations may see 400-500 inches of snow including the Tahoe resorts, especially Kirkwood!

LA and surrounding areas may see 150 percent normal rainfall between November 1 and March 31. 100-180 percent the normal from north of LA to north of San Francisco and all mountain areas and those exposed to heavy precipitation 150-200 percent of normal. Same for above normal snowfall in the mountains of the Sierra.

It;s likely as you go north of San Francisco, we may find BELOW normal precipitation amounts as the Pacofoc Northwest will experience a drier, milder than normal winter..

Thanks for reading.

-Mark

Email me at [email protected]