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Record August Rainfall Splashes Scotland
Updated: Tuesday, September 01, 2009 5:00 PM
Waves of rainfall spread over the month of August have led to the rewriting of weather record books in Scotland. Hit hard by the record-setting cloudbursts was the south west of Scotland. In the district of Dumfries and Galloway, for instance, a monthly rainfall of 373 mm, or 14.7 inches, was collected at the town of Eskdalemuir. Of this, 83 mm, or 3.3 inches, fell within 24 hours on the 20th of August.
Not only was the rainfall at Eskdalemuir its highest tally for any month of August, it was also the third highest monthly rainfall ever. Normally, it is fall and winter that have highest rainfall here, so this summer outburst was striking.
Elsewhere in Scotland, Paisley, near Glasgow, registered a monthly rainfall of 323 mm, or 12.7 inches — fully 300 percent of the normal monthly rainfall.
The anomalous rainfall stemmed from a busy Atlantic storm track that set up north and west of unusual heat that built over much of continental Europe.
Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Jim Andrews
Updated: Tuesday, September 01, 2009 5:00 PM
Waves of rainfall spread over the month of August have led to the rewriting of weather record books in Scotland. Hit hard by the record-setting cloudbursts was the south west of Scotland. In the district of Dumfries and Galloway, for instance, a monthly rainfall of 373 mm, or 14.7 inches, was collected at the town of Eskdalemuir. Of this, 83 mm, or 3.3 inches, fell within 24 hours on the 20th of August.
Not only was the rainfall at Eskdalemuir its highest tally for any month of August, it was also the third highest monthly rainfall ever. Normally, it is fall and winter that have highest rainfall here, so this summer outburst was striking.
Elsewhere in Scotland, Paisley, near Glasgow, registered a monthly rainfall of 323 mm, or 12.7 inches — fully 300 percent of the normal monthly rainfall.
The anomalous rainfall stemmed from a busy Atlantic storm track that set up north and west of unusual heat that built over much of continental Europe.
Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Jim Andrews
No, the day could not end without heavy, windswept rains. After a sunny day, these dark clouds rolled in from the Atlantic! It’s be on and off heavy rain all night..With Scotland and Great Britain and the Northeast-Midwest United States seemingly increasing their summers precipitation amounts this has been making me think about the bigger picture and the grander-scale, regarding earths climate change and possible long term implications of a cooling earth.
As the deep tropics have cooled and this may be showing up with lower than normal tropical cyclone production, I wonder is there a link between the tropics and the mid and high latitudes. Warmer waters, further north now may be bringing increased energy to the atmosphere with it. The increased precipitation in New England the the British Isles, Warm Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation? Strong Atlantic Depressions, increased rainfall? Faster Jet Streams? Stronger ridges and troughs?
I fully understand why a warmer North Atlantic would support both stronger depressions in winter and even summer, increase the rainfall and also keep temperatures warmer, but I wonder if, for the earth is balance out it’s energy budget and with less heat in the tropical or equatorial regions and warmer waters further north, does this coupled with increased cold of the pole, make for the warmer water, colder pole, increase strength and depth of troughs and also speed up the west to east movement of these troughs and ridges?
Cold (Ocean) Pool that’s crossed from New England to Ireland this summer
Have you noticed that large elongated pool of colder-than-normal water in the North Atlantic? See it move west to east from North America to Western Europe throughout the course of this summer? From what was a colder-wetter start to summer in eastern North America and warmer, drier than normal for Northwest Europe (including the British Isles) has seen a flip to warmer in eastern North America and dramatically cooler and wetter in NW Europe. Is this because a deeper-stronger than normal trough has migrated across the Atlantic from May to present? Is the pool of cold water a result of a stronger, deeper trough? Up until now, waters surrounding the UK and much of the North Atlantic have been uniformly well above normal, but for me, to explain the cold water, it’s must be because a cold pool aloft, hanging over the cold pool in the Atlantic (where winter ended cold) has been the reasoning in the flip this summer between New England and Great Britain..
Colder than normal winter last year, warm waters have cooled, what will this winter bring now?
I will be completely honest when I say that last winter really surprised me in many ways. In the past, I have either went by the Met Office in their prediction of a colder, snowier winter or went by my hope that we would finally see a colder, snowier winter after 10 years or so of warm, wet and windy winters, only to be disappointed once again. Last winter was a little taste of the 1990s, back to my school days where, despite the fact winters weren’t exactly like those of the 1970s, they still had been colder, snowier than the first 8 years of the new millennium, up until last winter when we had 3 substantial periods of cold with a albeit light snow cover which helped refrigerate the air mass in place for a couple of weeks. December, January and February experienced periods of cold and snow and this was rare to see. Sunnier, calmer and colder air dominated last winter. The winters prior, saw domination in deep Atlantic depressions that lined themselves up and rolled across a sultry, sodden and windswept UK.
With a waning warm AMO cycle, evidenced by the cooling of the tropical Atlantic and in part reduction in tropical cyclone production, warmer waters are found further north, has this increased the westerlies since the pole is cooling down and a thermal contrast increases..
(cooling over the pole, evidenced by much colder winters the past 2 years). Is this speeding up the upper flow across the Northern Hemisphere as well as west to east migration of weather systems, producing stronger ridges and troughs and with a colder winter last year over eastern North America is this the cause in the formation of the western North Atlantic cold pool? has this been transported across the North Atlantic by a stronger than normal trough and primary reason in such a flip in pattern for the British Isles?
The winds associated with these frequent depressions we have been under the influence of have felt colder than normal, is this also because the circulation of these systems are crossing colder than normal waters?
With a waning warm AMO cycle, evidenced by the cooling of the tropical Atlantic and in part reduction in tropical cyclone production, warmer waters are found further north, has this increased the westerlies since the pole is cooling down and a thermal contrast increases..
(cooling over the pole, evidenced by much colder winters the past 2 years). Is this speeding up the upper flow across the Northern Hemisphere as well as west to east migration of weather systems, producing stronger ridges and troughs and with a colder winter last year over eastern North America is this the cause in the formation of the western North Atlantic cold pool? has this been transported across the North Atlantic by a stronger than normal trough and primary reason in such a flip in pattern for the British Isles?
The winds associated with these frequent depressions we have been under the influence of have felt colder than normal, is this also because the circulation of these systems are crossing colder than normal waters?
Does this cold cool remain into this winter? Could it bring us a more severe winter in 09-10? Last winter was cold, but sustained cold it was, severe cold it wasn’t? Severe cold for us this winter? Lay down a decent and widespread snow pack and that’s possible. Also consider a weak El Nino and the potential for a severe Northeast US winter and El Nino, negative NAO teleconnection coupled with finally cold waters off Great Britain, we could see record cold this winter!
I have also wondered, with increased summer precipitation, is this years near or record breaking rains a result of warmer North Atlantic waters, bringing an increase Atlantic depressions being cooled as they approach the UK and ultimately ringing out more rainfall than what would otherwise be in these depressions if it weren’t for the cold pool off the west coast of Ireland?
I shall issue my UK and NW Europe Winter Forecast at the end of October when updating my US and Canada Winter Forecast.
I shall issue my UK and NW Europe Winter Forecast at the end of October when updating my US and Canada Winter Forecast.
Check this out from AccuWeather.com’s Raychel Harvey-Jones on Ireland’s rains..
http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=rss&blog=Euro&pgurl=/mtweb/content/Euro/archives/2009/09/ireland_battered_by_the_rains.asp
Record Scottish August rains..
Record Scottish August rains..
Last summer’s UK rains..
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
>there will always be deviations in precipitation, sunshine, pressure and temperature from the mean. However we need to establish the significance of these deviations. I'm not sure if these measures of weather follow a Gaussian distribution, but it would be useful to establish the mean value and include the uncertainty in terms of two times the standard error in the mean and the meausured value with a given uncertainty.Only then can the significance be established.