>It’s getting interesting when you step back from the picture and look at what’s happening here. The pattern in place is one to be concerned about if you reside anywhere from Florida to Maine, simply because after Bill and it’s close call on New England, I fear as the summer pregresses and the hurricane season nears a peak, that we have trouble brewing. Danny’s track is similar to Bill’s only further west and much more likely to graze if not smack into the East Coast. Building heights over southeast Canada, Northeast US will allow piling up of energy underneath it and Danny’s ramping up some 750 miles southeast of Hattaras could pose significant problems from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. We don’t have that weakness in the Bermuda high, we have much more than normal energy and heat availabilty off the Northeast and New England coast this year and could allow hurricanes to remain stronger than they otherwise would be. It’s 80-82 degrees off the South Jersey Shore and when you’ve got a tropical storm that the models are having it become a hurricane and also moving towards Jersey, couple this with wet, sodden soils and a looser environment the trees have under ground, this could be a recipe for desaster if you brought a cat 1 or 2 Danny up Delaware Bay and pulls or damages thousands upon thousands of trees. It takes a lot less when soils are wet to bring the down.
The current pattern will take most if not all systems that form up the East coast, but further west than Bill (as the pattern was still forming whn Bill was pushing west across the Atlantic) through at least the next several weeks, but Gulf development, though much less of a concern) can still pop a system that gets blown up on the tail of a frontal boundary.
Long and short of it Danny is a worry and a potential hurricane that takes aim at an area from Hattaras to Maine and with warmer than normal waters right up to Newfoundland, we have an increase in energy allowance so a system could remain stronger for longer.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark





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