>Tropical Update: TD 2 fights shear but still becomes Ana, whilst TD 3 is going to a Cat 3 Hurricane

OK, There is a lot to cover in the Tropical Atlantic basin, things are becoming busier and more interesting. Several things have struck me.

1) After TD 2 was looking extremely poor and almost deemed dead in the heart of the Atlantic and embedded, surrounded and tortured by African dust that was spread throughout the Atlantic in April and May has managed through it all the become tropical storm ANA.

What’s this mean to me? We must pay close attention to this and simply because of the fact that, IF Ana can develop within a harsh and hostle environment, we must stay alert and be concerned, why? because when it gets into an environment perhaps closer to land and people in the coming days, it may strengthen rapily… The Leewards, Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas and Florida all must be concerned that this thing is coming and posses danger since it’s managed to crawl through the harshest of environments and within that environment develop. I don’t see anything rapid in the development process within the next 2-3 days but once just NORTH of the islands and into a warmer water, light shear, less dry air environment, things could get rough as I believe Ana WILL BECOME A HURRICANE and threaten the US by mid to late week. More details coming up…

Meanwhile, TD 3 is looking very impressive, simply because if you look at sat imagery, the banding and area od symmetrical convective clouds surrounding and covering a large area of the system. In the next day to 3 days I believe we shall see all the energy rotating around this storm begin to move inwards towards the center as this storm develops. It’s in a better environment than Ana and thanks to Ana and it’s size, this storm will become a major hurricane BEFORE Ana.. I think both will become major hurricanes. If what will be Bill develops fast, it could grab a hold of the upper atmosphere too fast and possibly catch a ride in the trough axis and find a way towards the Newfoundland coast and North Atlantic, though I don’t believe that will be the case. I am becoming increasingly worried that TD 3 is quite possibly going to become a major Atlantic hurricane and intensify as it, like Ana, chooses a route just north of the islands and takes aim at the Bahamas, Ana think could threaten an area between Miami and South Carolina as a hurricane whilst TD 3 becomes a major hurricanes, north of the islands, maintains that strength towards the Bahamas and takes a slight turn (because of it’s greater strength and higher reach into the upper levels) and take a dangerous run up the East Coast…

The track and intensity is a major issue. We are still talking too far out to get details. I could well be completely wrong on all this but I am wanting my ideas out there.

In summary…

Ana to become a hurricane somewhere between the Leewards and Bahamas and make landfall somewhere between Miami and South Carolina as a weak to moderate hurricane..

TD 3 to become a large and major hurricane also between the Leewards and Bahamas and to take a northward turn dangerously up the East Coast, taking aim as a MAJOR HURRICANE between Hattaras and New England. I am taking into consideration the shallower, warmer shelf waters as well as the Gulf Stream, the large, better organised structure may maintain longer, though like all major and powerful hurricanes, possibly develop and peak early and therefore start to deteriorate before making landfall. The US is due for another Mjaor landfall which has not occured since October 2005 when Wilma struck South Florida…

Other issues that pose danger EARLIER than Ana or TD 3, they are a wave that’s moving into the islands and is taking aim at the Gulf early next week and could develop into a tropical storm before impacting possibly the Texas coast by Tuesday or Wednesday. I shall talk more on that tomorrow.

Meanwhile, another monster is spinning off the Africa coast now and this looks to have development potential also and this is just a impressive and as large as TD 3 right now, so very, very interesting days ahead. Be vidulant and watchful the next 7-10 days….

I shall fine tune these thoughts and ideas in the coming days into a more direct and detailed prediction..

Thanks for reading.

-Mark