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Yesterday’s highs, note blistering heat across coastal Africa and the Sahara as well as central and eastern Europe, also note the cool air covering western Europe and the UK.A very good morning. There’s nothing better than waking up to a beautiful sunny morning, a fresh new day. I usually only get a Saturday and Sunday off from work once a month so always nice to make the most of this.
Well a little recap of what summer has been like here on this side of the pond.. May-June we’re two beautiful, warm and dry months with a nice northward position of the Bermuda-Azores high which shielded us from the wrath of Atlantic low pressures that unlike the Pacific Northwest, we can be remarkably cool and wet with low hanging clouds rolling in for weeks even in summetime. The big difference with you guys on the Pacific Northwest, you lie on the western edge of a hot continental landmass and you do warm much more efficiently than we do, you guys also have a chance at heat waves and every summer you get at least upper 80s to low 90s. Of course the upcoming work week you may take a run at upper 90s to near 100 in Seattle and Portland, it’s more than likely you will top 100 for a few days as a nice ridge slides northward and cover you guys in nice hot weather. Before you complain, remember, it’s only a couple of months before Pacific lows ride the jet stream into your area bringing miserible wet, gloomy weather, so even if you don’t like the heat,, enjoy it…
Unsettled Western Europe, Hot, dry classic mid-summer weather across central and eastern Europe.
Our second half of summer which I recon started early July has been dissapointing, I was just starting to get used to the warm, sunny weather around here. Now after a cooler, unusual wet uncsettled pattern for the heart of Europe, that has flipped the other way, nice, hot dry anticyclonic weather has domininant (like it should be for time of year) across central and eastern Europe whilst a deep trough is drapped across the western half of the continent. This trough has produced a cool pool aloft, any low pressure energy cycling in around the base of this trough is making full use of the surface heating, albeit less than when we had high pressure dominating and this surface heating, old mid and upper levels are being used by the energy to produces heavy, blustery showers, some of which are thundry and very torrential. Flooding has hit many areas around Britain, particularly eastern areas of the country and Ireland. When out and about you always see the vertical profile of the clouds, look like they’re rising ever so higher into the frogid upper levels, but because we don’t have sufficient heating at the ground, these clouds perhaps get to the mid state of thunderstorm develop and collapse unfortunately for me..
Hot further south and east
Of course The Canaries, North Africa and the Mediterannean shore is all high and dry under strong domineering sub tropical high pressure which is never weakened in the height of summer. You can garentee interior and Med coast Africa to be between 100-120 degrees, the European coast in the 80s and 90s with spots topping 100 and the Asian Mediterannean coast running between 80s and 90s in high elevation to 100-125 in low lying deserts, which has been the case.
Alaska’s hot, dry summer.
It has been one heck of a hot, dry summer for much of western North America which bodes well with my ideas of a warmer, dry summer across this region. Like I’ve stated, were the cool and warm areas are by the end of this summer, this is where I am looking at warm, cool areas of winter to line up. Wildfires, and drought has been a serious problem throughout Alaska where this may well end as the driest summer on record for the state.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
I recieved an interesting article forwarded to by a good friend, stating that Arctic Ice melt is running faster than last year but less than 2007 which was the so-called record min for sea ice across the Arctic in September 2007. It’s said that Arctic sea ice is below normal compared to the long term average. 1) i Believe this would be the case given we have been warm for the past 30 years and will make many cold winters not just 1 or 2 to get back to where we were in the 60s and 70s and those earlier years when harsh winters ruled or hemisphere 2) Though the Pacific is cold in the PDO mode, the Atlantic remains in it’s warm mode and this in it’s final stages before it too like the Pacific flips into a cold mode, the North Atlantic is warmest compared to anywhere else in the basin as these warm waters spread from equator to pole. Note how warm the waters surrounding the UK are, The North Sea couldn’t be any warmer than normal! 3) The type of spring and summer in Alaska and northwest Canada shows me that with a strong ridge poking it’s nose into the Arctic and bringing interior 80s and 90s and coastal 60s and 70s, even along the Arctic coast, this will of course melt some Arctic sea ice but if you look at the image, there’s a lot of ice remain in the eastern half of the Arctic ocean, where it’s remained colder, Hudson Bay still has ice on it’s southwest shores and up until mid-June was literally covered still by ice. So I believe the reason for less the normal ice is simply because we’re still warmer than normal, the earth has not slipped back to colder than normal but every year we chip away at the warm bias but we went so warm, it’s a slow process, but I do see in about 5 to 10 years from now, a colder-than-normal earth again 2) the Atlantic is still warm and 3) there has been an incredible heat pump all the way from Mexico to Arctic Alaska and Canada which would naturally chip away at the ice but it remains higher than 2007, it may take many more years for the Arctic sea ice to get above normal in summer. This also is an el nino year which may be corresponding to the western ridge of high pressure and with it’ clockwise flow pushing equatorial warm waters into the Arctic ocean. Watch as the el nino collapses as fast as it appeared!
If you look at the world’s oceans, the North Atlantic is very warm, but the equatorial Atlantic is cooler as well as off the New England coast, the cool tropical waters and warmer northern waters is evidence that the AMO is on it’s last legs, this also makes sense that the Arctic ocean despite enduring two straight colder-than-normal winters is still runing below normal in it’s summer ice simply cause of still warmer than normal ocean waters running underneath as well as warmer than normal air entering from western North America.
Tropical Rainstorm heads out to sea, whilst East Coast gets a “feel” of summer.
Elsewhere, after a pretty good soaking for New England by the tropical rainstorm it’s heads off the Canadian Maritimes after bringing gales and flooding rains. Warmer, soupier tropical air is getting forced up east of the Appalachains for a change as the Bermuda high builds west, an unusual occurance this summer and this shifts the trough axis more over the Great Lakes and Northern Plains. The heat still holds firm across western North America with a potential record breaking heat wave for the Pacific Northwest and Portland-Seattle corridor.
Over 12 months below normal at Glasgow, Montana
An interesting note that has been brought to my attention that I think is worth noting. My friend in Glasgow, Montana is been keeping me informed about the run of below normal months. They have in fact has over 12-straight months now BELOW NORMAL for the Glasgow, Montana area, quite interesting, where else has had that persistent streak I wonder.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
Well a little recap of what summer has been like here on this side of the pond.. May-June we’re two beautiful, warm and dry months with a nice northward position of the Bermuda-Azores high which shielded us from the wrath of Atlantic low pressures that unlike the Pacific Northwest, we can be remarkably cool and wet with low hanging clouds rolling in for weeks even in summetime. The big difference with you guys on the Pacific Northwest, you lie on the western edge of a hot continental landmass and you do warm much more efficiently than we do, you guys also have a chance at heat waves and every summer you get at least upper 80s to low 90s. Of course the upcoming work week you may take a run at upper 90s to near 100 in Seattle and Portland, it’s more than likely you will top 100 for a few days as a nice ridge slides northward and cover you guys in nice hot weather. Before you complain, remember, it’s only a couple of months before Pacific lows ride the jet stream into your area bringing miserible wet, gloomy weather, so even if you don’t like the heat,, enjoy it…
Unsettled Western Europe, Hot, dry classic mid-summer weather across central and eastern Europe.
Our second half of summer which I recon started early July has been dissapointing, I was just starting to get used to the warm, sunny weather around here. Now after a cooler, unusual wet uncsettled pattern for the heart of Europe, that has flipped the other way, nice, hot dry anticyclonic weather has domininant (like it should be for time of year) across central and eastern Europe whilst a deep trough is drapped across the western half of the continent. This trough has produced a cool pool aloft, any low pressure energy cycling in around the base of this trough is making full use of the surface heating, albeit less than when we had high pressure dominating and this surface heating, old mid and upper levels are being used by the energy to produces heavy, blustery showers, some of which are thundry and very torrential. Flooding has hit many areas around Britain, particularly eastern areas of the country and Ireland. When out and about you always see the vertical profile of the clouds, look like they’re rising ever so higher into the frogid upper levels, but because we don’t have sufficient heating at the ground, these clouds perhaps get to the mid state of thunderstorm develop and collapse unfortunately for me..
Hot further south and east
Of course The Canaries, North Africa and the Mediterannean shore is all high and dry under strong domineering sub tropical high pressure which is never weakened in the height of summer. You can garentee interior and Med coast Africa to be between 100-120 degrees, the European coast in the 80s and 90s with spots topping 100 and the Asian Mediterannean coast running between 80s and 90s in high elevation to 100-125 in low lying deserts, which has been the case.
Alaska’s hot, dry summer.
It has been one heck of a hot, dry summer for much of western North America which bodes well with my ideas of a warmer, dry summer across this region. Like I’ve stated, were the cool and warm areas are by the end of this summer, this is where I am looking at warm, cool areas of winter to line up. Wildfires, and drought has been a serious problem throughout Alaska where this may well end as the driest summer on record for the state.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
I recieved an interesting article forwarded to by a good friend, stating that Arctic Ice melt is running faster than last year but less than 2007 which was the so-called record min for sea ice across the Arctic in September 2007. It’s said that Arctic sea ice is below normal compared to the long term average. 1) i Believe this would be the case given we have been warm for the past 30 years and will make many cold winters not just 1 or 2 to get back to where we were in the 60s and 70s and those earlier years when harsh winters ruled or hemisphere 2) Though the Pacific is cold in the PDO mode, the Atlantic remains in it’s warm mode and this in it’s final stages before it too like the Pacific flips into a cold mode, the North Atlantic is warmest compared to anywhere else in the basin as these warm waters spread from equator to pole. Note how warm the waters surrounding the UK are, The North Sea couldn’t be any warmer than normal! 3) The type of spring and summer in Alaska and northwest Canada shows me that with a strong ridge poking it’s nose into the Arctic and bringing interior 80s and 90s and coastal 60s and 70s, even along the Arctic coast, this will of course melt some Arctic sea ice but if you look at the image, there’s a lot of ice remain in the eastern half of the Arctic ocean, where it’s remained colder, Hudson Bay still has ice on it’s southwest shores and up until mid-June was literally covered still by ice. So I believe the reason for less the normal ice is simply because we’re still warmer than normal, the earth has not slipped back to colder than normal but every year we chip away at the warm bias but we went so warm, it’s a slow process, but I do see in about 5 to 10 years from now, a colder-than-normal earth again 2) the Atlantic is still warm and 3) there has been an incredible heat pump all the way from Mexico to Arctic Alaska and Canada which would naturally chip away at the ice but it remains higher than 2007, it may take many more years for the Arctic sea ice to get above normal in summer. This also is an el nino year which may be corresponding to the western ridge of high pressure and with it’ clockwise flow pushing equatorial warm waters into the Arctic ocean. Watch as the el nino collapses as fast as it appeared!
If you look at the world’s oceans, the North Atlantic is very warm, but the equatorial Atlantic is cooler as well as off the New England coast, the cool tropical waters and warmer northern waters is evidence that the AMO is on it’s last legs, this also makes sense that the Arctic ocean despite enduring two straight colder-than-normal winters is still runing below normal in it’s summer ice simply cause of still warmer than normal ocean waters running underneath as well as warmer than normal air entering from western North America.
Tropical Rainstorm heads out to sea, whilst East Coast gets a “feel” of summer.
Elsewhere, after a pretty good soaking for New England by the tropical rainstorm it’s heads off the Canadian Maritimes after bringing gales and flooding rains. Warmer, soupier tropical air is getting forced up east of the Appalachains for a change as the Bermuda high builds west, an unusual occurance this summer and this shifts the trough axis more over the Great Lakes and Northern Plains. The heat still holds firm across western North America with a potential record breaking heat wave for the Pacific Northwest and Portland-Seattle corridor.
Over 12 months below normal at Glasgow, Montana
An interesting note that has been brought to my attention that I think is worth noting. My friend in Glasgow, Montana is been keeping me informed about the run of below normal months. They have in fact has over 12-straight months now BELOW NORMAL for the Glasgow, Montana area, quite interesting, where else has had that persistent streak I wonder.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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