Europe June 2024 Outlook : MarkVoganWeather.com

The seemingly never ending warm, wet theme continued through May for UK, Ireland and Western Europe. A persistent block across the north has led to a north-south divide in UK rainfall distribution with a relatively dry N/W Highlands but very wet Midlands and South.

The firmly south displayed jet stream has been somewhat of a semi permanent feature but during May has led to a cool, wet Iberia and very unsettled central/southern Europe. It’s been a notably cool May for much of Ukraine and European Russia.

May 2024 was UK’s Warmest On Record

The UK had its warmest May and meteorological spring on record according to provisional Met Office figures in what was also a wet and dull season for many.

May 2024’s average mean temperature of 13.1°C for the UK beat 2008’s previous record figure of 12.1°C in a series which dates back to 1884.

The month’s mean temperature has been influenced particularly by above average temperatures in the northern half of the UK, with Scotland’s May mean temperature of 12.3°C beating 2018’s previous record by 1.6°C. England and Northern Ireland also set a mean temperature record for the month of May, while Wales equalled its figure from 2008.

Credit: Met Office

Mixed rainfall for May across the UK

Rainfall in May had much regional variation, with England and Wales generally wetter than average, while those in Northern Ireland and Scotland saw less in the way of rain. For the UK, this meant a slightly above average month of rainfall, with 82.5mm of rain, which is 16% more than average.

Credit: Met Office

Credit: National Climate Information Centre

May was warmest on record for Ireland too.

Credit: Met Éireann

Warmest Spring on Record for UK

Excerpt from Met Office

Meteorological spring (March, April and May) was the warmest on record by mean temperature, in figures that were influenced by high overnight temperatures.

March started the season with a mild and wet month, and that theme continued through much of spring. April was a wet month, with temperatures overall slightly above average.

Spring 2024’s average mean temperature for the UK has a provisional figure of 9.37°C, topping the figure of 9.12°C set in 2017.

England and Scotland also provisionally had their respective warmest springs on record by mean temperature. England’s mean temperature of 10.21°C topped 2017’s figure of 10.01°C, while Scotland’s figure of 7.97°C passed its previous record figure of 7.69°C set in 2014.

Credit: Met Office

A Met Office Spokesperson said: “Higher than average temperatures in March and May, either side of a slightly warmer than average April, means that Spring 2024 is the warmest on record according to mean temperature. Despite the warmth, sunshine hours during the season were well below average, though not troubling any national records.

“High overnight temperatures through the season have helped to push the mean temperature figure for the season beyond the previous record, while it has also been a wet spring for many.”

The graph below shows spring’s average mean temperature for the UK since 1884.

Credit: Met Office

6th Wettest Spring

The UK had its sixth wettest spring on record and its wettest since 1986 in a series which goes back to 1836.

The UK saw 301.7mm of rain over spring, 32% more than average. England and Wales had their respective fifth and eighth wettest springs on record.

Credit: Met Office

Met Office May 2024 Extremes

Highest Maximum 27.5°C on 12th at Chertsey, Abbey Mead P Sta (Surrey, 12mAMSL)
Lowest Maximum 8.8°C on 5th at Lerwick (Shetland, 82mAMSL)
Highest Minimum 17.1°C on 12th at Achnagart (Ross & Cromarty, 15mAMSL)
Lowest Minimum -1.1°C on 21st at Kinbrace, Hatchery (Sutherland, 103mAMSL)
Lowest Grass
Minimum -4.6°C on 21st at Aboyne No 2 (Aberdeenshire, 140mAMSL)
Most Rainfall 124.0mm on 22nd at Honister Pass (Cumbria, 358mAMSL)
Most Sunshine 15.7hr on 16th at Lerwick (Shetland, 82mAMSL)
Highest Gust 48Kt 55mph on 23rd at Orlock Head (Down, 35mAMSL)
Highest Gust
(mountain*) 63Kt 72mph on 23rd at Bealach Na Ba No 2 (Ross & Cromarty, 773mAMSL)
Greatest Snow
Depth at 0900
UTC
No non-zero values.

My Weather Station Stats for May 2024

MAX TEMP: 26.1C MIN TEMP: 4.2C WETTEST DAY: 7.90 mm PEAK GUST: 49.7 kph WET DAYS: 12 DRY DAYS: 19 MAX PRESS: 1028 mb MIN PRESS: 1001 mb TOTAL RAIN: 30.89 mm AVG Temp: 13.2C

It’s been quite a wet May and spring over much of central and southern Europe. Italy’s Piedmont region has seen it’s wettest spring in 70 years. Large-scale low pressure across the heart of Europe has led to flood or flash flood events stretching from Spain and France across to Poland and Balkan region while unusual warmth has been dominant for over 2 weeks across much of Scandinavia under the influence of the strong blocking ridge.

May is likely to be one of the warmest for Scandinavia also, helped by the fact that we’ve seen some rather anomalous late spring heat in parts of Norway, Sweden and Finland following on from a rather cold first half.

Exceptional warmth in #Norway with up to 31.1°C in Frosta, 30.8°C in Hitra, 30.6°C in Afjord Ii, 30.2°C in Steinkjer and 30.0°C in Trondheim! 18 monthly records broken; see the list below. Yesterday, 28.7°C in #Finland and 29.1°C earlier this week in #Sweden!

While through the 20th of the month it’s been warm for the UK, especially by night, a dry north, wet south made May slightly drier than average as a whole, although recent heavy rains has likely pushed the month into the ‘wetter than average’ territory, following the long term trend.

It’s been a cool, wet May for much of Portugal and Spain away from the drought stricken east of Spain but the month is ending hot with first 40s of 2024.

May 30th saw extreme heat top and tail Europe with 28C in Arctic Norway (Alta Lufthavn) while El Granado, Huelva, Spain hit 41.2C!

For England and Wales, 2024 has been the wettest opening to a year through May 21st since 1931 as per Dan Harris of the Met Office.

Cool, Dry First Half, Warmer, Wetter Second Half?

June and Meteorological summer 2024 is kicking off with the MJO quickly rotating out of phases 4-5 and into 6, 7 possibly ending up in 8 or 1, these are phases associated with blocking.

Most models suggest a weakly negative NAO for June before heading positive in July and August.

The AO is trending negative too which would help slow down the entire hemispheric ridge-trough pattern and could help this evolving setup next week to linger.

In terms of at least the first half of the month, there’s good model agreement that an Atlantic ridge edges in over the UK and Ireland for the first weekend of summer but then retrogrades WNW allowing a trough of low pressure to dive south from the Norwegian Sea. A cool, showery northerly air flow looks likely between weeks 1-2.

The below CFSv2 weeklies show the ridge backing WNW and trough dropping south to replace it.

The question becomes, if this setup evolves as expected, how quickly could it change. There is likely to be a battle between UK trough and Iberia ridge. What wins? The trough could get further south or the ridge may manage to push further north.

One would expect the trough to weaken and ridge to strengthen as we enter week 3 and 4 and so I expect warmer but potentially wetter times during the second half of the month.