United Kingdom & Ireland
The summer’s first major hot spell is now building thanks to the expansion of a strong Scandinavian blocking high which shall push out fresh Atlantic air and pull in hot, continental air. This high can be seen strengthening west and south from Scandinavia on the GFS 500mb height anomaly chart below and will act as a […]
Despite the UK seeing it’s driest spring on record, nature is quickly catching up on it’s rainfall deficit. While I expected this flip and hush of drought and summer 2018 repeat talk, this has come quicker than I thought. In just the past 7 days of June alone, many sites have seen more rain than […]
We’ve went from an omega blocking pattern over the UK through much of May to a Scandinavia high-over Iberia/France trough so far this June. This has kept it very warm and dry across Scandinavia and unusually wet and cool across South-central and Southwest Europe. The current 2m temp anomaly for June so far says it […]
After one of the warmest, wettest 2nd half’s to winter followed by the driest, sunniest spring, we are now seeing the return of rains just as folks wonder if another summer 2018 was on it’s way. Nature has an amazing way at fooling us, keeping us on our toes as well as attempting to find […]
After yet another warm, wet winter, it’s been nothing short of a stunning spring for the UK (sunniest, driest on record) thanks to high pressure dominance. This flip can be at least partially attributed to a shift in MJO. While UK temps peaked at 28.3C at the beginning of the week in Cromdale, Speyside, we’ve […]
It’s been a May of stark rainfall and temperature contrasts. Thanks to the presence of an Atlantic weather front, heavy and persistent rain fell widely across Northwest Scotland with 141mm of rain fell within 48 hours at Achngart in Glen Shiel. In contrast, Benson, Oxfordshire has seen NO RAIN this month due to persistent high […]
Welcome to my 10th annual European summer forecast. As always, when compiling this forecast for the upcoming June-August period there are multiple factors which have been taken into consideration which could influence the summer pattern. These include global and regional sea surface temperature anomalies, the current and projected ENSO state, the mild, wet winter followed […]
It’s been quite the May for cold throughout the British Isles and Ireland thanks to dry arctic or subarctic air trapped within a dominant blocking high over ground starved of rain. Cloudless skies have been common place in recent weeks as seen in the below visible satellite image. While April as well as May has […]
After a non-winter, all of a sudden old man winter gets here 3 months late and doesn’t want to leave. A +AO/NAO low pressure dominated winter has abruptly flipped to a -AO/NAO high pressure dominated spring. We’ve went from 200% of normal rainfall widely back in February to just 20% of normal rain during April. […]
There’s been nothing normal about the polar vortex over the past 10 months. After being record strong throughout the past winter, producing the 4th warmest winter for the UK, 6th warmest for the US and warmest on record for Europe as a whole, the final stratospheric warming has now finally unraveled. Perhaps late due to […]
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