United Kingdom & Ireland
If you read and watched last Sunday’s Mother’s Day outlook for the UK, you’ll remember the uncertainty and conflicting solutions between ECMWF and GFS. Both models are now in the same camp and it’s looking good for the majority of both the UK and Ireland as well as much of central and western Europe. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] It’s looking rather mild […]
In a follow up to last night’s post regarding the cooler, drier outlook, I want to look a little more closely at soil moisture content and it’s importance in atmospheric feedback as we toward warmer times. Here’s the ECMWF’s interpretation of Europe’s soil moisture content. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The focus of wettest ground extends from the UK to Italy. This is where […]
There are clear signs of a cooler and drier pattern evolving for the UK, Ireland and much of Europe starting this week and may continue well into April. This type of pattern may have fairly significant influence later into spring and indeed the summer ahead. Positive influence if you like something similar to last year, hint […]
Regional Summary Scotland England Wales Ireland Monday 8 / 0 10 / 3 9 / 3 9 / 3 Tuesday 9 / 2 10 / 4 10 / 3 11 / 3 Wednesday 8 / 0 12 / 4 11 / 3 11 / 2 Thursday 8 / -1 10 / 2 11 / 3 10 / 2 Friday 9 / 0 […]
Many of us will be hoping for some decent weather next weekend? Why? It’s Mother’s Day of course here in the UK and Ireland. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] As of now, next Sunday (2nd April) is looking not too bad depending upon what computer model you look at. If you look at the 168 hour ECMWF chart, it’s looking dry, […]
There’s good agreement with all the big models that a ‘Modoki’ style El Nino will form this summer. (Modoki: Central Pacific based El Nino, typical during cold PDO’s) LINK: The El Niño Modoki TOP IMAGE: Courtesy of NASA [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Due to the cold PDO, El Nino’s tend to be weak and short lived. Joe Bastardi of WeatherBell points out […]
When looking through the various charts this morning, there was one thing that grabbed my attention. The GFS and to an extent the ECMWF, has snow even in Africa in the coming days. That would be impressive given the averages are way up there by now. It should be getting warm, not cold in the desert […]
We have a fairly significant cross polar strat warming underway. This time, it’s over the pole. Throughout this winter the warming at 10mb has been from Russia across the N Pacific into Alaska, so it’s different from before but that doesn’t mean we’re suddenly set for the winter we never got. However it’s a setup supportive of cooler times at least. […]
Time and time again this winter, modelling has suggested spells of cold with snow but most of those times, it was nothing to write home about. This month sits in between the extremes of the past two Marches. Remember last year? Looked and felt more like January. In fact, if last March had of been January, […]
As expected, temperatures are brutal across much of Scandinavia with two mornings in a row dipping below -30C in northern Sweden. In contrast, a frontal boundary sits nearly stationary across northern Scotland and along the boundary we’re seeing mild westerlies with plenty of showers over Scotland. Drier the further south you go. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] A […]
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