Seasonal Forecasts
The UK and Ireland sits beneath a cool northwest air flow in the wake of the last Atlantic system. Ahead of the front, SW winds drove highs widely into the 30s over Spain and France with 41C reported in Cordoba once again. In fact many resorts up and down the Costas likely witnessed their hottest […]
Yesterday was cooler for the Northeast in the wake of the latest system while it was in the 100s as far north as South Dakota yesterday ahead of the next system. Current GFS 500mb height anomaly chart. Yesterday’s maximums. A large thunderstorm complex (likely an MCS) as blew up overnight bringing damaging wind, lightning and flooding rains, perhaps […]
For the past few days and even beyond, the models have suggested next weekend will be very different to this weekend across the UK. The unsettled theme shall continue through at least the first half of the upcoming week but towards next weekend, the jet and unsettled weather looks to finally lift to our north and west allowing […]
There is signs that heat and humidity is building and expanding as we progress through July. The first heat wave of the summer showed up over the Southwest, it’s now over the Southeast and it’s likely to be heading for the nation’s 3rd drought region, the Northeast as we head into mid month. It’s been hot throughout the Southern […]
I believe the 2007 and 2012 washout summers was down to the combination both the peaking of the warm Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and very warm North Atlantic including waters surrounding the British Isles and the onset of an El Nino. SSTA’s at the beginning of April 2007 and 2012 where exceptionally warm. Record rainfall – April to July […]
The active northerly July storm track continues and when you’ve a summer and autumn air mass with Sep/Oct lows in between, you get severe weather… Yesterday’s storm reports. Today’s threat! It’s a steamy then stormy Friday up the East Coast. Storm triggers storms, possible severe weather tonight and tomorrow. The atmosphere get’s cleaned out in the storm’s […]
It was a very wet night here in Scotland and across England today, however, while this latest system clears east we’ve been eyeing a system which hammered the Eastern US last weekend. It’s spent the last 4-5 days crossing the Atlantic and deepening into an unusually potent July depression. This morning’s visible and infrared. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The […]
Summers have gotten wetter for the UK thanks to the warm phase of the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) but when this warm phase peaks in a year when El Nino is coming on, expect record rains in the UK. Both 2007 and 2012 saw a very warm AMO and warm North Atlantic as well as an El Nino […]
As pointed out in recent days, we have a very active storm track for July crossing the Northern United States with a conga line of systems crossing the Pacific and entering the Pacific Northwest. The current system is crossing the N Plains and entering the Great Lakes bringing heavy rain and severe thunderstorms, the next […]
With warm water stacked north of the UK, colder water extending south and west out into the north-central Atlantic, this SST provide mirrors the projected upper air pattern seen by the models next 7-10 days. A dominant Icelandic trough and strong Azores high extending east across the Med supports warmer than normal southern and eastern Europe, cooler, wetter across Ireland […]
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