Seasonal Forecasts
A stormy Saturday is upon us as a rapidly deepening low crosses the UK. Fuelled by a sharpening temperature gradient over eastern North America, the trans-Atlantic jet stream is forecast to accelerate beyond 200 knots, rare for this late in the season. The jet usually begins to weaken s we head towards April with the northward […]
First comes the snowstorm… Probability of snow over the Northeast Saturday night. ECMWF snow through 72h. Still plenty of snow up in New England to help drive temps down behind the system. Then comes the cold… 10-20, locally 25 below normal Sunday morning. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] As for Out West, it’s all about the heat and record […]
Moore, Oklahoma is hit yet again!! Less than 2 years since the devastating EF5 which killed 24 back in May, 2013 and within one of the quietest opens to a severe weather season in US history. Scenes from Moore, OK yesterday… https://youtu.be/B_4QE4EjrNA Over 43,000 lightning strikes recorded on the Plains yesterday! Tornadoes in or near Moore, […]
It’s back! This is what I woke to this morning… Rain was in fact turning over to heavy wet snow on my drive home early this morning. Other snow scenes this morning. A9 Drumnochter A82 Glen Ogle Good news is the snow never lasts long at this time of the year but is it uncommon for […]
For a second straight March, severe weather season has been literally non-existent. That can only be blamed or thanked on one major factor… Cold! Without the clash of warm and cold, the ingredients aren’t there but the upcoming days will change that as an arctic high drops out of Canada while warmth and humidity gets […]
Some brief thoughts on next winter… [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] We know that a west QBO, +NAO/AO and solar max leads to a warm, wet and stormy winter here over Western Europe. (last year) We know that an east QBO, +NAO/AO, weak El Nino and start of a solar downturn leads to a still ATLANTIC driven winter but […]
As forecasted back on Sunday, it was a cold start to Wednesday thanks to high pressure overhead! Frost never lasts long once the sun rises within those clear blue skies. Dry air cools quickly after sunset but also heats fast at sunrise this time of year. Hope you got a chance to read yesterday’s April Outlook […]
With little or no change in SST’s (abnormally warm up West Coast), colder than normal Great Lakes etc, I see no reason to believe that the Alaska ridge/Eastern trough doesn’t persist through at least the first 15 days of April and therefore, like we’ve seen throughout the 2nd half of winter… warm West, cold or […]
Based on past and current pattern and model projection, I believe April is looking mixed with at least one decent spell of warmth but also spells of wet and windy for Western and Central Europe. Warmer and drier than normal further south into Iberia and across the western Med Basin. I am showing you the […]
While the remainder of spring 2015 is looking wet across much of the country, we’re beginning to see hints of drought now into the Northern Tier. This follows a drier than normal winter. In today’s video I showed the CFSv2 precip and temps for April through July and it looks like the model is going for warmer than […]
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