Seasonal Forecasts
We all know it’s been a wet past 8 weeks but I thought this was an interesting stat we’re waking up to this morning. Aboyne, Aberdeenshire has comfortably broke their all-time record for January rainfall. Amazing is the fact we’re only 8 days into the month. Scene from Inverurie, Aberdeenshire last night. Many flood warnings […]
Our dream is about to become a reality with our long wait near over. The combined AO/NAO index appears to be heading to it’s most negative since the cold winters of 09-10, 10-11 and with such a strong polar vortex during November/December, one cannot rule out the extreme with this evolving pattern. It remains very wet […]
According to NOAA the 2015 El Nino has tied 1997-98 as strongest in recorded history. It would appear drought stricken California and the West is reaping the benefits but as per usual in classic powerful El Nino’s, rains and storms come in hard. This is the 5 freeway in north LA this morning. Visible satellite shows […]
Winter has hit central and eastern Europe with a vengeance, the same region which bore the brunt of last summer’s intense heat and drought and of course experienced a warm autumn. This looks to be one of those great turnaround winters. Much about a week now, temperatures from east Germany north and east have shivered […]
The quick hitting arctic blast has delivered as expected and this morning was by far the coldest morning of winter in the East. Temps fell into the 20s down to the Gulf Coast. This morning’s lows. -27 in NW Maine. -24 in Upstate New York, -15 Vermont. It was a cold morning in the Mid-Atlantic. As cold as it […]
It was a poor December ski-wise over the Alps, Pyrenees and mountains of south and east Europe. However a new year brings a new weather pattern, one much more suited to January and not October. Snow building over Spain’s Sierra Nevada too. Storm Frank’s punch of warmth into the arctic atmosphere and forced the plunge […]
For the first time this season arctic air has descended over the Northeast today presenting the first single digits highs over parts of northern New England with widespread 20s and 30s. Fresh snow cover and thicknesses down to 510 over much of the interior Northeast will make for a cold night under clear sky and light […]
With a deep, cold trough anchored over much of continental Europe and a large slow moving 976 low centred over Ireland, we have the continuation of a stuck moisture plume that streaming into eastern Scotland. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Here’s the ECMWF surface. With this being a relatively cool flow, driven by strong to gale-force SE winds, precipitation is falling as […]
Note the persistency in central and eastern US ridging through December, hence record warmth aided by strong polar vortex, west QBO, El Nino etc etc. However, now we’re into January and the stage is set with the first ‘arctic’ air mass, I guess you could call it the first, of the season ascending upon the Northeast tomorrow […]
With the help of Storm Frank and NOT strat warming, we now have arctic air dislodged and present within the mid latitudes including Europe. No evidence suggests pattern shift is down to a warming stratosphere. But Frank’s northward shove of warmth? Yes. Note at the very end of the animation and surge of strong positive towards the pole […]
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