Note the persistency in central and eastern US ridging through December, hence record warmth aided by strong polar vortex, west QBO, El Nino etc etc.

However, now we’re into January and the stage is set with the first ‘arctic’ air mass, I guess you could call it the first, of the season ascending upon the Northeast tomorrow with temps holding in the uncommon 20s/30s by day, 10s and 20s by night and a good 5-10 below normal from Toronto to Richmond, VA. The push of arctic air will be accompanied a significant lake effect event.

Cold NW winds verses abnormally warm Great Lakes means only one thing.

Northeast plays catch up after a near snowless December.

Then after another mild spell as height come up, the big arctic blast comes down between Jan 10-15.

Frank’s punch of tropical warmth into the arctic has a lot to do with this colder outlook but it’s helped also by the MJO entering a cold phase 8.

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California’s snow pack is in good shape compared to this time last year and with the continuation of this active Pacific pattern, moisture and snow pack will continue to build.

Next 3 day snow totals.

Beautiful evening sky over a snow covered Reno late last week.

West Coast storm track drops this week.

GFS 500mb height anomaly snap shots show the evolution of the arctic outbreak mid month. Seeds are already being sown.

Be sure to watch the video for an in-depth explanation as to how this arctic blast is evolving and will come down.

1st arctic blast.

Then as that leaves the playing field, heights begin building over the far north of North America with a piece of arctic air held between the Arctic ridge and Great Lakes ridge but as time progresses, the core of cold gathers and slowly begins to nudge south with the influence of strengthening heights over the Canadian archipelago.

As a another trough dumbbell’s through the Southwest into the south-central US, the Great Lakes high begins to join up with high pressure over Greenland and by doing so, the door is opened for the core of cold to begin diving south and may well hook with the system crossing the Southern US. This convergence of northern and southern branch energy makes with a major trough and cold over the Plains then slides east, potentially setting up a major East Coast snowstorm that’s followed by record cold.

See this morning’s video for more.

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