Rest of Europe
The Atlantic is making it’s comeback after a near week dominated by cool, easterly winds. Storm Deirdre is making the change from cold continent back to milder, stormier Atlantic as the jet stream strengthens. The tight thermal gradient marked by the storm is helping it deepen on final approach to the UK and so the […]
I’ve held off for about a week or so on talking about the stratospheric polar vortex because we all know how modelling suggests one thing only to let us down with the opposite. We know the stratospheric polar vortex has been under a degree of stress and as a result it’s been stretching and flexing. […]
The wet pattern continues for much of the UK with the Atlantic still firmly in charge as forecasted. This soggy pattern looks likely to remain from now up until Christmas, what happens after that remains to be seen. As you’re probably aware by now, I have called for colder late December onwards and the models […]
The UK has been separated by two quite different air masses over the past 24 hours. Wednesday began with -7C in Aviemore but +13C in Cornwall, Devon, Dorset and really through the day it didn’t change much with the south peaking at around 13-14C whereas northern Scotland struggled to get above freezing all day. In […]
A record strong and prolonged +NAO between May and August helped drive one of Europe’s hottest summer’s in the last 100 years while Greenland shivered it’s coldest since 1997. The cooling of the North Atlantic has almost certainly helped cool Greenland’s summers down and helped enhance this past summer’s deep Greenland trough and Europe ridge. […]
As we commence December and meteorological winter 18-19 tomorrow, the next surge of arctic air looks set to drill down the eastern side of North America early next week. This in turn will strengthen our predominantly zonal Atlantic jet thanks to the NAO going back neutral which means don’t expect an end to this wet, […]
Wind and rain is in firm control of our weather to end November and commence December. Lot’s of ‘cold talk’ of late and wishcasting but with the NAO going positive and polar vortex core leaning towards Greenland/Scandinavia, there’s no sign of anything other than an Atlantic pattern for NW Europe through the next 10 days […]
I’m just heading off to the hills but wanted to share a few thoughts on the return to wetter, windier and somewhat warmer. With the increase in thermal gradient over North America, our trans Atlantic jet is strengthening and as a result we’ll see the return to a more active pattern this week ahead. As […]
Up until mid November it had been a warm month with temps soaring to 18C as far north as Kinlochewe, Northwest Highlands. The 2nd half of the month turned seasonal to slightly below average as winds turned from southerly to easterly courtesy of the development of a powerful Scandinavian high. The colder flow wasn’t enough […]
You’d think that by now, modelling would be at least close to be correct. I’m not talking ‘months’ in advance but more 10 days… The CFSv2 showed a very warm November for the US with warmer and warmer runs the closer it got to November. In reality we’re witnessing one of the coldest Novembers. As […]
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