Shutterstock General Synopsis The overall synopsis supports a two large troughs either side of the North Atlantic Ocean with one positioned over the British Isles and the other over the Northwest Atlantic. Both are complex with multiple centres.There is a fairly deep trough now well over the UK with low heights supporting very cold air […]
In both Winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11 my long range seasonal forecast turned out successful but last year that success came to a crashing halt. Since then I have been studying the global pattern, ocean sea surface temperatures across the world as well as observing closely what our weather pattern has been telling us ever since last year. I’ve learned […]
Shutterstock General Synopsis The overall synopsis across the Atlantic supports a low due north of the UK and due east of Iceland at around 988 mb, high positioned to the south of the UK neasr Azores at around 1020. Another high over Greenland at 1020 and a low over the Northwest Atlantic at around 996 mb.The low […]
The models continue to throw the BLUE paint bomb on a large swath of the Lower 48 with the latest 6-10 day off the Climate Prediction Centre showing a particularly cold look. This way this is shaping up with a powerful ridge pumping all the way to Alaska and the fact the Arctic Oscillation is […]
The storms continue lining up across the Atlantic with low pressure dominating the UK and it looks set to remain that way up till at least the weekend. Here’s the GFS surface chart for 3 hrs from now. Note the storm east of Iceland, this is driving our weather by sending fronts, rotating around this system […]
Scotland Over the course of today, there has been considerable shower activity driven in on a fresh to strong southerly. Temperatures this afternoon across Scotland are cool, ranging between 11-13C as of 3pm. Winds are blowing out of the SW or WSW, averaging 5-15 mph widely but in exposed western areas or at higher elevation, 18-25 mph with gusts […]
Often during October, when a major cold shot drops into the heart of the Lower 48, a heatwave is going on over California. This time around will be no exception. The reason? a highly amplified pattern with a major dip in the jet which has arctic air forced south will have warm air lifting north […]
The best way I think to describe our week ahead is, classic autumn! The Atlantic is dominant this week with a series of fronts sweeping through. However what’s interesting is the upper level trough dropping down with temperatures cooling considerably. In other words we have increasingly cold air dropping down while fronts bring bands of rain followed […]
The southern Japanese prefecture of Okinawa has been hammered once again by a 3rd major typhoon in less than 5 weeks and the latest packed a big punch to the southern half of the island which is home to the city of Naha where there was a lot of damage to windows, street lights and even cars […]
The european model is showing a very different scenario from 24 hours ago for next Saturday with the above chart being last night’s run. The new run is below! It’s basically complete opposites but I always say, never trust an individual run but if you look at the overall pattern and indexes such as the NAO etc, you […]
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