Mark Vogan
After a cold October and November for much of the Lower 48, December started off on a similarly cold note with the aid of a retrograding blocking high from the Canadian Archipelago to Alaska. However, as you can see from the below 30 day animation, around the 10th saw a 360 flip with ridge replaced […]
The month of December has panned out pretty much as expected, predominantly mild, often wet and driven by a mainly +AO/NAO. In the 30 day animation below, you can see the initial blocking then return to negative heights across much of the arctic (+AO) which has led to mild over the continents but note the […]
Are you dreaming of a white Christmas? Thanks to a positive AO/NAO, it’s been a mild and wet December so far and it looks to remain that way for the last weekend before Christmas. As we head into Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, high pressure builds over the UK settling things down. So, sunshine should […]
The persistent thunderstorm activity over the Indian Ocean has been a strong phase 3 indicator of the MJO, a warm phase for the Lower 48. As this convection weakens, we’re going through phases 4 and next week, into 5. As you can see below, phase 4 remains warm but 5 shows cooling out West. Note […]
If models prove correct with late month SSWE, a 1979 or 2010 style January-February is on the table!
The latest GFS ensemble continues to show an end of the month SSWE which could make for a very interesting January ahead. There’s still plenty of room of disappointment but our chances for cold is increasing. Note the temperature difference at 10mb over the Arctic between now and January 1st. https://twitter.com/MetmanJames/status/1074321968948760576 The amplified MJO is […]
The Atlantic is making it’s comeback after a near week dominated by cool, easterly winds. Storm Deirdre is making the change from cold continent back to milder, stormier Atlantic as the jet stream strengthens. The tight thermal gradient marked by the storm is helping it deepen on final approach to the UK and so the […]
It may be a mild pattern now across a large portion of the continent but the models are seeing the return to a colder, snowier pattern east of the Rockies as we approach Christmas. In fact much of the continent goes from red to blue within the next 2 weeks. Notice in the GFS ensemble […]
I’ve held off for about a week or so on talking about the stratospheric polar vortex because we all know how modelling suggests one thing only to let us down with the opposite. We know the stratospheric polar vortex has been under a degree of stress and as a result it’s been stretching and flexing. […]
Bob Henson · December 7, 2018, 3:47 PM EST Six eastern U.S. states joined Texas in slogging through their soggiest autumn in records going back to 1895, according to monthly and seasonal data released Friday by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Every state from the Great Plains to the East Coast, except […]
A trough of cold, dense air covers a large swath of the US from Texas to Atlantic. A significant storm system is tracking east on the southern edge of this trough through the southern tier this weekend bringing a mix of heavy rain, sleet, snow and freezing rain. There are reports that Lubbock, TX has […]
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