Mark Vogan
There was two very different air masses separating the US as we commenced 2019. While looking and feeling like winter across a large swathe from Montana to Minnesota and from Arizona to Texas and points in between, it was more like spring from Florida to Rhode Island. On the final day of 2018, temps were […]
The sudden stratospheric warming has now crucially progressed across the pole and headed towards the Davis Straits as we entered 2019. A split in the vortex is expected over the next day or so. Now we all know that there’s a delay or lag between the initial SSWE at 10mb and by the time the […]
The pattern has been mild across most of the continents of the Northern Hemisphere with the aid of a continued amplified MJO progressing through phases 2,3,4 and 5 which supports a neutral to positive AO/NAO. Though NOTHING is certain until we see the pattern evolve, there are more favorable atmospheric drivers/signals/components coming together which supports […]
Well I hope you all had a wonderful Christmas. Now we’re in that gap between Christmas and New Year festivities and the weather is not particularly exciting to say the least. No cold, no snow, no storms but parked between weather systems which aren’t moving that much due to a relatively slow upper flow. Briefly […]
After a cold October and November for much of the Lower 48, December started off on a similarly cold note with the aid of a retrograding blocking high from the Canadian Archipelago to Alaska. However, as you can see from the below 30 day animation, around the 10th saw a 360 flip with ridge replaced […]
The month of December has panned out pretty much as expected, predominantly mild, often wet and driven by a mainly +AO/NAO. In the 30 day animation below, you can see the initial blocking then return to negative heights across much of the arctic (+AO) which has led to mild over the continents but note the […]
Are you dreaming of a white Christmas? Thanks to a positive AO/NAO, it’s been a mild and wet December so far and it looks to remain that way for the last weekend before Christmas. As we head into Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, high pressure builds over the UK settling things down. So, sunshine should […]
The persistent thunderstorm activity over the Indian Ocean has been a strong phase 3 indicator of the MJO, a warm phase for the Lower 48. As this convection weakens, we’re going through phases 4 and next week, into 5. As you can see below, phase 4 remains warm but 5 shows cooling out West. Note […]
If models prove correct with late month SSWE, a 1979 or 2010 style January-February is on the table!
The latest GFS ensemble continues to show an end of the month SSWE which could make for a very interesting January ahead. There’s still plenty of room of disappointment but our chances for cold is increasing. Note the temperature difference at 10mb over the Arctic between now and January 1st. https://twitter.com/MetmanJames/status/1074321968948760576 The amplified MJO is […]
The Atlantic is making it’s comeback after a near week dominated by cool, easterly winds. Storm Deirdre is making the change from cold continent back to milder, stormier Atlantic as the jet stream strengthens. The tight thermal gradient marked by the storm is helping it deepen on final approach to the UK and so the […]
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