Has La Nina Cooled Our Planet?

Written by Mark Vogan on February 8, 2022 in Rest of Europe, Rest of World, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

I’m sure for folks living in the UK and much of Europe, after what has been a mild and snowless winter, most won’t be thinking about the title above.

It’s always important to keep in mind that what goes on in your own back yard doesn’t necessarily reflect the bigger picture.

The below temperature anomaly chart from yesterday really caught my attention early this morning.

I probably worth pointing out the figures below. 0.0C World, 0.0C NH, 0.0C SH, -1.5C Arctic and -0.1C Tropics, after all, we expect to see + figures these days.

Climate Reanalyser

I think it would be safe to say that average to below average temp anomalies over large areas aren’t often observed. This got me thinking… Where are we in terms of the now 2-year La Nina?

Keep in mind, EL NINO pumps heat into the atmosphere and warms the global average whilst LA NINA’s cool it.

Here’s the UAH temperature for January 2022 and years dating back to 1979. Safe to say we are warming!

Credit: University of Alabama-Huntsville

It’s interesting to see the double peak between 2016-17 (following the 2014-15 super nino) and 2020 (following 2017-18 nino) with a dip either side. We’re currently in the midst of the 2nd dip! (current la nina)

Also note between the two most recent peaks, the dip in between falls 0.5C shy of reaching ‘average’ and question will be, do we continue the La Nina cooling through spring sending the global average below average or may it fall short?

The below chart showing El Nino/La Nina episodes and the rise and fall in global temperature and nice correlation to the above UAH chart.

Let’s take the sun into account and note the correlation in all 3 charts.

The last time our planet was firmly below average in a double dip scenario was back between 2008 and 2013 at a time around and just after the 2008 solar minimum which coincided with a strong La Nina.

This time around, the double dip has occurred much more ABOVE the average line with weaker 2-year La Nina episode. Sure, we did see cooling and are seeing it now but not to the same level as during and the 2 years AFTER the 2008 minimum.

So, why the ‘lack of cooling or lesser cooler’ with the current multi-year La Nina combined with recent solar minimum?

When looking at January 2022 with it’s +0.03C, it’s interesting to see ‘where’ the warmest areas of the lower troposphere are.

Note it’s over the northern ocean basins and much of Northern Asia… Also note the cool over the tropics (direct influence of La Nina).

Credit: University of Alabama-Huntsville

With each Super El Nino (88-89, 97-98, 2014-15), the global temperature set’s a new benchmark and there is LESS cooling to follow, even less strong La Nina’s which follow.

While fingers quickly point to CO2, let’s take a look at the difference in global sea surface temperature following the 2008 minimum and following the 2019 minimum.

Current

Earth’s oceans are MUCH warmer and I believe this heat release into the atmosphere is increasing water vapor which traps heat causing the global warming we see today and have been for much of the past 30 years.

Is ocean warming masking the strength and effect of La Nina, even the sun? Remember that the sun has been in a declining trend for some time and will be very very interesting to see if the 2019 minimum combined with the ongoing La Nina can have any true and tangible cooling effect on earth’s atmosphere.

Next winter is going to be interesting as of course the next solar maximum may come soon and you would expect another 1 or two El Ninos along with a renewed warming trend towards 2025.

Summers have undoubtedly warmed despite the solar minimum, summer 2022 will be interesting to see whether we get continued ‘warmer than normal’ or do we revert back to the cooler, wetter summers of 2009-2011. Summers ‘should’ be warmer with solar maxes and El Ninos, not with solar mins and La Nina like we observed last summer.

Conclusion

I believe it’s the continued warming of our oceans that continue to raise earth’s temperature bar. The question is, do we see any ‘real’ cooling with the now 24-month La Nina combined with most recent solar min? WE SHOULD. and the next 8 months will tell a story.

Sure looks like the cooling of the equatorial Pacific has led to cooling of the tropical atmosphere, perhaps by drying it out. This may have then forced water vapor north and south towards the poles and here is where the atmosphere is warmest.

I also ask the question about the current global pattern. Why are we seeing a record to near record strong polar vortex with an east QBO and most importantly in the wake of the 2019 solar min? Surely the warmer ocean compared to the 2008 minimum is the cause of the ‘masked cooling’?

As always, time will tell.

Here’s the year-to-date temperature anomaly.

An interesting belt of cool in the mid to low latitude belt. Strong build up of warmth over N Asia extending across to the Canadian Archipelago. Induced by strat warming which has been forcing cold away from Siberia into the USA and this has in turn forced a stronger Atlantic jet. Note the belt of warmth across the Atlantic and throughout Europe!