Archive for 2018
Over the Thanksgiving holiday, one of the coldest November arctic outbreaks descended upon the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Not only was it the coldest Thanksgiving day/night for many, it was also the coldest weather ever recorded in November. In order to break monthly cold records which have stood 100+ years, Canada needs to have an expansive […]
I’m just heading off to the hills but wanted to share a few thoughts on the return to wetter, windier and somewhat warmer. With the increase in thermal gradient over North America, our trans Atlantic jet is strengthening and as a result we’ll see the return to a more active pattern this week ahead. As […]
From earliest snow as far south as Galveston, TX to coldest Thanksgiving on record for parts of the Northeast, November 2018 will go down as one of the coldest in US history. Month so far. There are a couple of contributors to such a chilly November. A cold September for much of Canada and building […]
Up until mid November it had been a warm month with temps soaring to 18C as far north as Kinlochewe, Northwest Highlands. The 2nd half of the month turned seasonal to slightly below average as winds turned from southerly to easterly courtesy of the development of a powerful Scandinavian high. The colder flow wasn’t enough […]
The recent 6.4 inch snowfall which fell on NYC’s Central Park not only was the city’s 2nd snowiest November day on record but it was the earliest 6+ inch snowstorm on record. Only 1882 saw more snow on a single November day and that was 15 days later. https://twitter.com/Evargas31/status/1063281742637924352 While the snow departs, so a […]
You’d think that by now, modelling would be at least close to be correct. I’m not talking ‘months’ in advance but more 10 days… The CFSv2 showed a very warm November for the US with warmer and warmer runs the closer it got to November. In reality we’re witnessing one of the coldest Novembers. As […]
I know I keep going on about this but I feel strong about this. There has been a great deal of hype and buying into individual ‘cold model runs’ lately. Do that was caution at this early stage, especially when the models see big cold blocking patterns but with little PV disruption. While there has […]
There’s no getting away from this. I didn’t see it coming this early. We’re potentially looking at the deepest negative AO/NAO for November since 2010 and this is rather ominous for so early. Low solar could be triggering this early blocking and could be an indicator of the level of winter ahead. A 2009-10 repeat […]
The November 2018 cold wave will be remembered for one of the coldest start’s to November on record in some Midwest cities while for some southern cities where it’s still typically in the 70s at this time of year, they witnessed their earliest snow on record. From weather.com Coldest So Early in the Season or […]
I have to admit that I’m struggling with the pattern and shifts over the next week or so. I’m very conflicted but here’s what I wrote in a post earlier today…. In the short 6-10 day range, cold spells are possible for the British Isles but when looking at the bigger picture and longer 2 […]
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