While the chill of February had eased last weekend into the beginning of this week, we’re ending the month and winter on a bitter note.

WINTER 2017-18 RECAP

Like December and January, the third and final month of meteorological winter has been mixed but with more frequent spells of cold and snow across much of Western Europe compared to the previous two months.

I think it’s safe to say that for the UK it’s been a colder, snowier winter than the previous two and quite possibly the coldest since 2012-13.

One could argue it’s worst since the infamous December of 2010 as motorways became blocked. It’s been another winter in which people spent the night on the M74.

In December we saw Glasgow and Edinburgh hit -8 with -9 to -10C in suburban areas while the Highlands and Midlands hit -13C.

In January both Glasgow and Edinburgh dipped to -9C, coldest since 2010.

Each of the three meteorological winter months of 2017-18 brought a spell of significant snow and cold over the UK but locally rather than regionally across Europe.

Scotland and even parts of Northern Ireland observed a good snow year both at low and high levels with cold frosty mornings common across the bulk of the UK during both December and January but less so for southern England and Wales which was milder while downright warm on the continent.

Recent winters have trended very snowless across Southern and particularly Southeast England but this year has seen more snow than probably the previous 3 combined. Same goes for Paris and other near continent cities.

There’s a clear message in both the December, January temperature anomaly charts… mild… but with a dramatic flip in February.

January

February

As already stated in recent articles, this winter cannot be summed up simply by looking at the large scale. For example despite December being an overall warmer than normal month even for the UK, Scotland witnessed a cold December with plenty of snowfall. However a 10 day stretch of mild made the month average out seemingly uneventful temperature wise.

As for January well there was a much clearer north-south divide with frequent waves of cold and snow focused over Northern Ireland, Scotland and northern England. January did turn out cooler than normal across the Northern UK but average for the bulk of England and Wales, milder in far south.

As for February, despite some recent mild, it’s been another month with all types of weather with a firm lean towards colder. For Europe as a whole, it’s been a dramatic switch from mild to cold and it looks like February will end on a bitter note which heralds a very cold open to March and meteorological spring.

The winter has been driven by a +NAO but thankfully -AO which helped bring us more winter than recent years.

Following a recent sudden stratospheric warming event, we await this winter’s most prolonged cold spell. The pattern is becoming highly amplified with high pressure building from the UK all the way to northeast Russia. This upper wind reversal shall drag Siberian air across Europe starting this weekend. The Siberian origin air shall reach the UK Monday.

Here’s something you don’t see very often… easterly winds blowing from Siberia across Europe and North Atlantic to reach Canada… and -15C air at 5,000ft above the UK.

Rare -15C at 5,000ft over the UK.

GFS ensemble 2m temperature anomaly through the rest of February.

Coldest March since 2013 on the way?

It would appear a very cold ‘first half’ to March is on the way. I state first half because it’s tough to say for sure how long this cold spell will last. I would say 2-3 weeks anyway given the strength of the SSW. Trouble is we could have a bitter first 15 days of the month and much milder 2nd half or last 10 days which means the month winds up colder than normal but not exceptionally. If this cold persists through say the 20th then this could wind up one of our coldest March’s on record but it’s down to duration.

In terms of how severe this cold will be. That’s also open to question until the air mass actually reaches the UK. The core of the cold may dive into France and Spain, the UK or both.

Certainly the models show a period of quite exceptional cold to end February and commence March. NOWHERE shall be immune to seeing snow next week and severe frosts are highly likely. This period will be the WORST OF WINTER.

In the coming days I shall be looking at the finer details of next week with regarding snow and how cold we may be.

GFS ensemble 2m temp anomalies through first half of March.

CFSv2 shows about as cold of an end to February across Europe as you’ll ever see.

A little less extreme week 2 off the CFSv2 and notice it pulls back weeks 3 and 4. The model could be right or it’s flipping the pattern to quickly.

 

Tags: featured, monthly-outlook, winter recap