Here’s a glance at the latest model output for Christmas Day. Note the good agreement with low coming in across central Scotland, starting dry in south, wet in north with snow confined to north of the Central Belt. Models will continue to shift and alter over the next few days but it looks like 95%+ of the UK will need to content ourselves with a brown (snowless) Christmas.

GFS

ARPEGE

ECMWF has the coldest air at 850mb holding back west even later Christmas day but pushes in late Boxing day into the 27th.

GFS snow is minimal at the end of Christmas day, a little more extensive over high ground by the end of Boxing day.

Still some time yet but it looks likely that the vast majority won’t see snow Christmas day. When opportunity is marginal, the likelihood becomes less and less.

Snow potential may be more promising between 27-29 with a brief plunge of arctic air in the wake of the Christmas system before another lift ahead of New Year, Yes it’s a fluid pattern driven by a strong jet.

GFS snow cover by Dec 29.

Next system introduces warmer air and snow melt on approach to the bells.