While models can still do a 360 10 days out, it looks pretty much a lock that we’ve cold diving south in time for Christmas. All the models show the same solution with predominantly mild this week. The question is how cold once we reach Christmas?

GFS ensemble shows significant warmth across the board mid week but MUCH colder by Christmas Eve/Day.

TUE AM

CHRISTMAS AM

ECMWF 850mb temp anomaly is even more impressive tomorrow morning vs Christmas morning.

CFSv2 weeklies also on board with warm front running 7 followed by very different following 7.

It remains cold week 3 which takes us into January and then interestingly the pattern breaks mid January.

GFS snow through 240 hrs