Simon Cardy today shared the latest run of the MO model for mean sea level pressure January through March and it screams a mild, Atlantic driven winter with stronger than normal Azores high and Icelandic low which would strengthen a predominantly zonal jet stream into the UK and W Europe.
Credit: Met Office
500mb anomaly and 2 metre temp also mirrors the same outcome.
Credit: Met Office
This solution is based on an east positioned La Nina which was officially declared this past week by NOAA.
https://twitter.com/NOAAResearch/status/929061114620579840
Don’t be too disheartened by the above. As I stated in my winter forecast, cold spells can be very impressive and impactful despite a warmer than normal winter. The solar cycle is heading towards the next minimum and so cold outbreaks are likely to become a feature in even a warm winter..
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