As we close the door to autumn’s 2nd month there’s contradiction in the modelling around the end of Oct/beginning of November solution.

GFS ensemble indicates a turn to much cooler around Halloween on into the opening days of November, a change from recent years while the CFSv2 weeklies hold on to the milder theme.

GFS ensemble 5-mean 2m temperature anomaly

CFSv2 weelies

Like September, October has been wet and at times stormy but while September was cool, October has been mild.

This has been the setup for the past couple of months, even extending back through the summer.

September temperature anomaly

October so far

We indeed had two storms during October as expected. With Ophelia followed by Storm Brian.

https://twitter.com/JudoMartin/status/920083335950602240

https://twitter.com/CornishSea_Salt/status/921651744714698752

Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation

With AO and NAO heading negative, most elements point to cooler, more settled conditions.

Looks like November at least opens cooler but as the month progresses I believe the upper air flow flattens out with the return of wetter and more unsettled.

CFSv2 for November

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: @thefixportrush @thefixportrush

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