The persistently cool, wet and breezy weather of the past few days is all down to a cold trough of low pressure trapped between two highs. We’re well on the cold side of the jet too.

Surface chart for today shows a dismal cold, wet and windy 2nd last day of June…

1pm temps

First it was the Southeast of England who got a thoroughly miserable day on Tuesday in which Santon Downham, Suffolk recorded it’s wettest summer’s day in 57 years.

Then it was the Midlands and Northern England’s turn Wednesday and now Scotland today. The low dove south and is now lifting back north, hence why the heaviest rains are tracking northward.

Rain amounts have been impressive and unusual given that the moisture is streaming in from a typically dry easterly rather than southwest direction. As chorleyweather.com’s Stuart Markham points out, thank a warm Mediterranean and upper air setup.

Combination of cool air aloft, deep cloud deck and wet, windy conditions beneath, temperatures are supressed well below the seasonal average for the end of June.

2m temperature anomaly at 12z today. Note how cool in Spain!

With the canopy of heavy rain pushing into the Borders and Edinburgh area overnight, this has given Edinburgh the 14mm needed for the Scottish capital to receive it’s wettest June on record. What a shift from the previous two months.

The good news is the weekend quietens down as high pressure moves in ahead of the Monday system. SSW winds mean a sheltered, sunnier Moray and Aberdeenshire should warm nicely Saturday and Sunday as well as south of the border where 25C is expected. Always cloudier and therefore cooler with a chance of rain over the windward side of the Highlands.

Next week sees the jet stream lift north, strengthen and flatten out from it’s current amplified state positioned down into Iberia. This means low pressure and cooler air returns to Iceland while warmer air nudges closer to southern Ireland and UK. Expect the return of a N-S split in conditions with cooler, wetter and windier in the Northwest, always drier, sunnier and warmer into England and Wales.

Each dip within the jet stream indicates a disturbance. Warmth and humidity lifts ahead of each approaching disturbance.

Next system with wind and rain arrives in western Scotland Monday.

Even by next weekend, the GFS shows a strong, zonal jet stream.

Watch today’s video.

Tags: edinburgh weather, wettest june on record