When looking back through the more recent years (back to 2000), I think this winter was closest to 2011-12 with blocking high pressure predominantly over the NE Atlantic with extension into the UK and Scandinavia while cold air frequently swept underneath bringing a colder than normal January to France and Spain as well as SE England. Like we saw in January 2012, the southern half of the UK bore the brunt of the winter’s chill with January winding up colder than average but thanks to a lot of cloud, Scotland and Northern Ireland witnessed an above normal January. Overall, it’s been a rather dry winter thanks to persistent high pressure.

Here’s an interesting but not entirely surprising statistic from this winter.

I walked the nearby old Glasgow to Edinburgh railway line yesterday, (active from 1848 to 1966) here in Milton of Campsie and there was signs of spring all around.

Recent days have turned considerably milder and as we progress through the upcoming weekend, milder air currently out over the eastern mid Atlantic is poised to lift up into the UK late weekend into early next week via SW winds. We have a shot at seeing the UK’s first 17C in February since 2012 by Monday.

The rare mid-autumn stratospheric warming in fact brought our coldest weather of ‘winter’ during autumn’s final month with Braemar recording -12.1C. The lowest value during meteorological winter was only -10.1C, also recorded in Braemar earlier this month.

Stratospheric temperatures cooled significantly during December which provided a positive AO/NAO and mild month but towards New Year, we witnessed a significant warming in which a much colder pattern set in during January. So much so that parts of Europe witnessed their coldest January since the 1960s. The profile of the strat warming benefited MAINLAND Europe but like in 2011-12, it didn’t so much the UK except for a weaker version of the freeze affecting southern Britain.

February witnessed back and forth but snowfall wise and even cold, it’s been uneventful.

What’s very interesting is the GFS is hinting at another MAJOR strat warming towards month send. Yes, we’ve seen this time and time again only to be disappointed, I know and feel your pain. How many times I’ve been stung and sucked into believing cold was heading UK-bound, I care not to remember BUT this may be one last chance at seeing winter, perhaps even the coldest weather of the year before spring arrives.

Initial

7 days

10 days

Warm North Atlantic certainly supports blocking high pressure, not low pressure!

CFSv2 weeklies show a large-scale height reversal between high and mid latitudes but in response to the strat warming? Who knows at this time.

Could this have shades of March 2013? Maybe but I don’t see the extremity of back then but seemingly modest meteorological winters of the past have been followed by particularly chilly March’s and spring’s and certainly the GFS provides reason to believe we still have cold times ahead despite longer days and shorter nights.

Before we get anywhere near March and any potentially sustained period of cold, the Atlantic reawakens next week with some pretty deep lows seen to cross just to the north of Scotland. Widespread severe gales? Also watching for heavy snow, potential blizzard conditions as these lows will entrain some colder air.

Watch this evening’s video.