What a difference a few days can make when winds turn from southerly to northerly, even in the typically sunniest, warmest part of the UK.

On the same day Cairngorm Summit recorded a wind gust of 115 mph (Sunday), Cavendish, Suffolk reached 28C making them the UK warm spot. Thanks to a wind shift, this morning’s low dipped to a refreshing if not nippy 7.5C.

A late September morning for south central and southeast England.

The northwest flow continues today and will peg back temperatures across the board. Feeling cool under the cloud and in the breeze.

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Ready for the warm-up this weekend on into next week?

There is high confidence that a strong high will lift north over and just east of the UK late weekend and likely peaking early next week. Position of the high will be key as to whether Scotland and Northern Ireland win or loose. For maximum heat potential at the surface you want a nice strong, well stacked high centred over the North Sea. Strong enough to hold back any weather trying to come in off the Atlantic and east enough to allow a southerly or even better, southeasterly flow which can transport the warmest air in.

The models are firm in the warm surge solution but loose in the finer details.

Here’s the latest GFS 500mb height anomaly.

Looking good with the high building over and then ENE of the UK which would allow the heat to lift from Spain and France up into the UK.

This morning’s run of the GFS has backed off on Scotland but I think this will change. Anyway, here was the numbers the GFS was printing out last night.

See this morning’s video.

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