We know that’s it’s going to warm up and remain warm but the question is when?

According to the GFS ensemble, we begin to see the ridge take over day 10-14 and that’s really from April 15 onwards…

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What’s rather interesting however is that the typically warm CFSv2 weeklies hold the cold through the remainder of April…

EPS control? It merely modifies the chill day 10-15, not convincing on a sudden surge of summer.

For me, a lot depends upon how long the AO/NAO remains firmly negative.

Keep in mind that it was the strat warming back in March which kicked this all off. It was this that delivered and it’s up to this that will essentially determine when winter ends and summer starts.

Clue, watch for the cooling…

See today’s video.

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