Well the overnight snowfall did catch me off guard as I had this possibility back last weekend but then backed off.

We have quite an interesting, highly amplified and progressive pattern but with plenty of cold air to work with. Significant wave breaking at the 500mb level will send a series of cold shots into the UK over the next 10 days.

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The monster cold shot which broke records from Toronto to New York has essentially flooded the North Atlantic and lows running the northern flank of the very high which delivered that cold will push waves of cold into the West of Europe with lows acting as spokes.

This high which dropped south out of Canada is now over the central Atlantic acting as a wheel in pushing some very cold air eastwards. We remain with a highly active low pressure train on the high’s northern flank and with each low comes a cold shot into the UK.

The progressive nature of the North America to Europe pattern is very noticeable in the below GFS 500mb height anomaly snapshots.

Note ridge No 1 now exiting Newfoundland and pushes into the mid Atlantic, down comes cold shot no 1 for the UK now.

That ridge then only just manages to slumber it’s way into the southern UK just as the next front sweeps in Friday

Into the weekend and the Azores ridge is forced south by a building trough dropping south out of Iceland which descends over the UK pulling in arctic air Sunday. Note the ‘wave’ of ridging coming off Canada becomes central over S Greenland/N Atlantic. Down comes cold N to NW winds into the UK later Sunday into Monday.

Cold shot no 2.

Cold shot no 3 looks interesting with ridging building from Greenland to Scandinavia.

See this morning’s video for the discussion.

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