Well the ECMWF continues to go with the extreme cold card by laying down a sufficient UK snow cover followed by a 1036 surface high which slides over the snow fields and drives night temps towards -15, even -20. The GFS on the other hand is playing it down.

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It’s the finer details that will determine just how bad this cold spell will be as stated countless times already.

Snow on the ground is more important than snow forecasts because after all it must snow for snow to be on the ground.

The period between Wed-Fri will be crucial as this is the window for the snows to arrive and lay down that reflective blanket.

ECMWF snow cover as of early Sat AM.

Into the weekend and especially early next week, the high builds in, settling things down.

2m temperature Sat AM.

GFS has backed off considerably with a far less cold weekend solution.

GFS projected UK snow cover Sat AM.

Rather than building a strong surface high in like the ECMWF, the GFS has a system pushing into the cold air which in fact could be a significant snow producer.

Sure enough, here’s the GFS snow cover for the following 24 hours.

This would mark the change back to mild as that system opens the door to maritime air once again.

Whereas the ECMWF holds the cold high.

However, even the ECMWF brings a moderation in the chill towards mid next week.

GFS meteogram for the Glasgow area shows light snows on several days this week.

See video for today’s discussion.

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