Still early days but I can feel my blood beginning to pump as I gaze at the 5-10 and 10-15 day period. Yes I knew the AO was going negative but it would appear the NAO is going to FINALLY play ball too and potentially bring our first ‘beast from the east’ perhaps a week or so after the New Year. If this is the case, timing is likely to chop and change as time progresses.

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The Siberian high is intensifying and with significant height northern Asia extending west into Scandinavia and Greenland with a hook up of the Canada-Greenland ridge, it would appear Siberian air pulls west over Europe and may well lap our eastern shores between Jan 5-8. Again, it’s early days. Don’t mark your calendar yet!

As for this week, it’s business as usual. Wind and rain moves westwards across the UK tonight into tomorrow but it’s the system which follows which could see central pressure dip into the 920s (mb).

Today’s surface chart.

That front clears and is followed by a rapidly deepening low which moves up towards Iceland.

The high over northern Europe builds towards 1050mb and this will slow the forward progression allowing the tightening the low and pressure gradient between Europe and Atlantic which means southerly gales are likely to develop, becoming severe during Wednesday.

Surface chart for early tomorrow now shows a system SW of the UK.

24 hours later and note the central pressure!

This will cause further flooding problems for the UK.

Along with severe gales, further flooding is a given.

Here’s the ECMWF surface showing the next 72 hour scenario.

Once the Wednesday front moves through potentially dropping a further 2-5 INCHES.

Colder air follows and this may mark a significant change beyond New Year. Note the Scandinavian high building and westward progression of Siberian air into Europe. A clash over the UK could suggest, dare I say, a snowstorm.

Just look at the 850mb chart and see the Siberian air pushing westwards into Europe.

GFS operational also sees what the ECMWF is seeing… Maybe time to dust off those hats, scarves and winter coats!

Hum!

ECMWF & GFS SNOW ON THE GROUND DAY 10

EPS Control & GFS Ensemble Is Going For Glory!

EPS Control 5-day mean 500mb height anomalies.

Now this would be worth getting a touch excited about!

GFS ensemble 5-day mean 500mb height anomalies.

Here was the post from yesterday which looked at the huge flip in the hemispheric pattern.

See video for the discussion.

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