EUROPE: Transient Pattern Remains But Change Beginning To Show Over The High Latitudes

It’s another north-south split in weather over the UK today with cool, blustery and showery conditions across Northern Britain with snow falling above 500ft while it’s dull and relatively mild across the far South, drier, brighter in between.

Snow has been falling steadily on and off over Highland Scotland in the last 36 hours and we’ll continue to see that through Friday, driven in by a still strong west wind.

We’re under a fairly chilly WNW air flow currently with -5 to -10C at 850mb covering NI and Scotland.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

This is the current scene along the A9 at Drumnochter.

Credit: Traffic Scotland

Credit: Traffic Scotland

A82 through Glen Coe.

Credit: Traffic Scotland

Credit: Traffic Scotland

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Met Office have a yellow ‘be aware’ warning for snow out today.

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

With snow cover, clearing skies and lighter winds tonight, it will turn cold fast. Expect +2 to -2C through the Central Lowlands into Saturday AM but further north we’ll see a widespread -3 to -6C, possibly nearer -8 or -9C within sheltered snow covered Glens.

Potentially More Flooding Problems On The Way For Cumbria This Weekend

The next system arrives during Saturday and focuses on southern/central Ireland and the central swathe of the UK (Northern, Midland England/Wales) while it’s drier and brighter but much cooler to the north over NI and Scotland.

Further heavy rain could well lead to more flooding issues. If this rain band lifts a little further north than models show, I would say it’s a given that there’s going to be further flooding problems around Cumbria. 1-2 inches of snow is likely over the North Pennines as this moisture runs into cold air in place. Northern Ireland and Scotland look clear and crisp.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Another system swings an arm of rain north via a warm front during Sunday and this will kick the cold air out of Scotland.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Very little change through next week, further spells of wind, rain and mild air with it.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

This is purely for fun but check out the GFS snow cover on Christmas Day. Not bad all things considering!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Is There Something Brewing For January? Polar Stratosphere Beginning To Show Signs Of Weakening?

Now this is interesting!

Initial

gfs_t50_nh_f00

Day 7

gfs_t50_nh_f168

Day 10

gfs_t50_nh_f240

I wanted to see the warming do full circle around the polar low and it is as well as showing stronger warming in the western Arctic Ocean while the vortex is being pushed off the pole towards Asia.

Mind what the Canadian has for Jan/Feb with positive heights lifting further north on the North America and Europe side of the pole and look at the warm core showing between Canada and Greenland in day 10 50mb temps above.

If this is the beginning of an SSWE then January is likely to be very different to December.

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