Warmth and for some, wet has been the big talking point for not just the UK, Europe but across much of the hemisphere in recent weeks. You’d think it would be turning much colder by now right? Well I think it’s safe to say that we’re seeing the direct influence of one of the strongest El Nino’s in recorded history.

Europe anomaly thus far in December.

Following the UK’s warmest day and night on record for November, the warmth continues well into December with a high back on Monday 7th reaching a balmy 16.4C at Gogerddan, Wales. That was actually the UK’s warmest December 7th on record.

Here’s what UK high temperatures should be for early December.

The warmest ever high in the UK during December was 18.3C recorded at Achnashellach, Scotland on Dec 2, 1948.

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Many parts of Europe as well as eastern North America are experiencing record breaking warmth for the time of year. Question is, does this remain through the winter of 2015-16 like we saw back in 2006-07 or is there one mighty flip on the way?

Last night saw some nasty conditions with gales and driving rain. Gusts of 50-60 mph combined with horizontal through central Scotland and a 112 mph gust over Cairn Gorm. Today it’s very much a north-south divide over the UK today with the cold front draped across the Midlands and southern UK.

A cool sunshine and shower regime across Northern Ireland and Scotland today. Much fresher compared to yesterday’s 9-12C with only 4-6C today but in the South it’s milder, cloudier with outbreaks of rain.

Think it’s mild over southern England? Just look at the warm anomalies today across much of Northern Europe.

GFS projected high across Europe today.

Today’s GFS surface.

Projected highs over the UK and Ireland. Noticeable difference between Channel Coast and central Scotland. Mild air along the south coast will make it up into southern, even central Sweden, southern Finland where highs may reach double figures.

The strong westerly flow with some modified arctic air entrainment, a fresh covering of snow is expected with the showers spreading west-east across higher ground, mainly above 800ft, wintry mix to lower levels.

Snow has returned to high level roads this morning.

This cooler, fresher air holds through Friday but into Saturday and warmer air once again spreads north but before that, expect some seasonably chilly nights!

Saturday morning could see -8C somewhere in the Highlands before the warming air arrives.

Looking Ahead

The theme isn’t likely to change in the days or even weeks to come as the large-scale setup and driver remain the same. Plenty more wet and mild weather will push into the UK and unfortunately for those already reeling from the floods of the past weekend, more rain is on tap.

The mild eventually wins out this weekend as low pressure lifts up from the SW and this looks to be the trend as heights build over the continent while low pressure in the means holds just west of Ireland. This will keep our air flow southerly and therefore mild.

EPS control 5-day mean 2m temperature anomalies show the mild gaining ground and holding probably through Christmas.

See video for the discussion.

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